2026-01-14 02:55:00
Summary:
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China December exports and imports beat forecasts
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Exports +6.6% y/y; imports +5.7% y/y in dollar terms
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December trade surplus $114.1bn
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2025 trade surplus hits $1.19tn on flat imports
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US bilateral surplus eases slightly in December
China closed 2025 with a stronger-than-expected trade performance, as December exports and imports both beat forecasts, underscoring the economy’s continued reliance on external demand even as domestic momentum remains uneven.
Customs data showed December dollar-denominated exports rose 6.6% y/y, well above the Reuters poll forecast of 3.0% and slightly stronger than November’s 5.9% pace. Imports increased 5.7% y/y, sharply beating expectations for a modest 0.9% rise and accelerating from a 1.9% gain previously. As a result, China recorded a December trade surplus of $114.1 billion, marginally above the $113.6 billion consensus.
In yuan terms, exports rose 5.2% y/y in December, while imports climbed 4.4% y/y, producing a trade surplus of CNY 808.8 billion. The divergence between dollar- and yuan-denominated figures reflects currency effects over the period but does not materially change the underlying picture of firm trade flows at year-end.
For full-year 2025, China’s export performance remained resilient. Dollar-denominated exports rose 5.5% y/y, while imports were flat year-on-year, resulting in a record trade surplus of $1.189 trillion. In yuan terms, exports increased 6.1% y/y and imports edged up 0.5% y/y, with the annual trade surplus reaching CNY 8.51 trillion.
The data highlight how China’s growth model continues to lean heavily on exports amid subdued domestic demand, particularly in consumption and private investment. Strong overseas shipments have been supported by competitive pricing, supply-chain dominance in manufactured goods, and continued redirection of exports toward non-U.S. markets as trade frictions persist.
China’s December trade surplus with the United States narrowed slightly to $23.25 billion, from $23.74 billion in November. While the bilateral balance remains large, the modest easing suggests some rebalancing at the margin, even as trade tensions and tariff uncertainty continue to shape export patterns.
Overall, the latest trade figures reinforce the view that China’s external sector remains a key stabiliser for growth heading into 2026. However, the scale of the surplus also risks intensifying trade scrutiny from major partners at a time when global protectionist pressures are rising.
