2026-01-13 21:52:00
Via oilprice.com
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Expectations I had seen centred on:
- Headline crude +0.42 mn barrels
- Distillates +0.13 mn bbls
- Gasoline +0.24 mn
This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API).
- It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companies
- The official report is due Wednesday morning US time.
The two reports are quite different.
The official government data comes from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA)
- Its based on data from the Department of Energy and other government agencies
- Whereas information on total crude oil storage levels and variations from the previous week’s levels are both provided by the API report, the EIA report also provides statistics on inputs and outputs from refineries, as well as other significant indicators of the status of the oil market, and storage levels for various grades of crude oil, such as light, medium, and heavy.
- the EIA report is held to be more accurate and comprehensive than the survey from the API
I posted yesterday on the tug of war in oil:
In brief:
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Oil settles at seven-week highs, extending mid-January rally
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Iran export risks support prices amid protest crackdown
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Venezuela supply return caps upside
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Russia, Azerbaijan add background supply risk
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Volatility dominates despite surplus outlook
- Oil climbed as Iran-related supply risks outweighed expectations of returning Venezuelan barrels, gains seen since mid-last week.
SO far the tensions surrounding Iran are winning out, supporting oil prices.
In the chart at the top of this post I added a ‘resistance’ line based on just an eyeballing of the daily candles cahrt. I suspect that, at the lest, we’ll have some price work to do before it can head too much higher. If Trump launches an attack against Iran, which seems likely given he going backwards on domestic policy and popularity (attacking someone is about all he is able to get done right now), that should be enough for a renewed pop higher.
