China inflation hits near three-year high, but producer deflation signals weak demand

Summary:

China’s consumer inflation accelerated in December to its fastest pace in nearly three years, while factory-gate prices remained in deflation, underscoring the persistent imbalance between improving headline prices and still-weak underlying demand.

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed consumer prices rose 0.8% year-on-year, the strongest increase since February 2023 and slightly faster than November’s 0.7% gain. The result matched market expectations. On a month-on-month basis, CPI rose 0.2%, beating forecasts for a 0.1% increase and marking a clear rebound from November’s monthly decline.

Core inflation, which strips out food and energy, rose 1.2% year-on-year, unchanged from the prior month, suggesting that underlying price pressures remain modest despite the pickup in headline inflation. Food prices rose 1.1% from a year earlier, while non-food prices increased 0.8%.

By contrast, producer prices fell 1.9% year-on-year, slightly better than the expected 2.0% decline and easing from November’s 2.2% fall. The data extend China’s factory-gate deflationary streak beyond three years, highlighting continued excess capacity and weak pricing power across the industrial sector.

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Economists say the data point to fragile domestic demand, even as growth remains broadly on track. Macquarie expects China’s consumer inflation to remain flat through 2025, while producer-price deflation is forecast to deepen, potentially marking the longest deflationary stretch on record. The bank warns that additional policy easing, including lower mortgage rates and relaxed home-purchase rules, may still fall short of reversing the property downturn.

Meanwhile, Bank of America Global Research estimates China’s GDP growth softened to around 4.5% in the fourth quarter, from 4.8% previously, with fixed-asset investment contracting further even as industrial production benefited from a year-end manufacturing pickup.

Despite a recent rebound in factory activity, policymakers face mounting pressure to support consumption and stabilise the property sector, as falling corporate profits and renewed price competition continue to weigh on confidence.