2026-01-09 01:15:00
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate, or “midpoint.” It’s currently at +/- 2%.
The previous close was 6.9835
more to come
Earlier:
PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 6.9832 – Reuters estimate
And, as a reminder/heads up, there is inflation data from China in just a few minutes time, bottom of the hour:
- 0130 GMT, 2030 US Eastern time
As I posted earlier:
The backdrop entering today’s release is one of persistently low inflation but slight upward momentum in consumer prices. November’s CPI logged a 0.7% y/y rise, its fastest pace in nearly two years, driven largely by rebounding food prices (especially fresh produce) and modest gains in other categories, while core inflation held around 1.2%. Meanwhile, PPI has remained deeply negative, reflecting ongoing factory-gate deflation as industrial prices continue to lag, although some stabilization was seen on a m/m basis late in 2025.
Market participants will parse today’s figures for evidence that domestic demand is firming and whether price pressures are broadening beyond volatile food items. The data will also feed into assessments of China’s growth trajectory and implications for global reflation narratives in early 2026.
A firm tipping a lower than consensus forecast, Zhe Shang Securities at 0.7% y/y, seeing no change from the November result. Zhe Shang expect 0% m/m, i.e. no change. You’ll note in the scrfeenshot below there is no consensus forecast for the m/m.
- The firm’s PPI forecast has it remaining in negative territory at around -1.9% y/y, ‘up’ from November but still deeply negative.
