New York Fed survey sees rising one-year consumer inflation expectations, jobs angst
2026-01-08 16:07:00
- One year inflation expectations +3.4% vs +3.2%
- Three-year inflation unchanged at 3.0%
- Five year inflation unchanged at 3.0%
- Job-finding expectations hit record low
- Expectations of home price growth unchanged at 3%
- Perception of credit access fell
- Expectations of losing a job rose
- Median one-year-ahead earnings growth expectations remained unchanged at 2.6% in November
- The mean perceived probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher 12
months from now increased by 0.1 percentage point to 38.0%.
From the survey:
Perceptions about
households’ current financial situations deteriorated notably, with a
larger share of respondents reporting that their households were worse
off compared to a year ago and a smaller share reporting they were
better off. Expectations about year-ahead financial situations also
deteriorated slightly, with a smaller share of respondents reporting
that their households are expecting to be better off a year from now.
Mean unemployment
expectations—or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate
will be higher one year from now—improved slightly, decreasing by
0.4 percentage point to 42.1 percent.
The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12
months increased by 1.4 percentage points to 15.2%. The reading is
above the series’ 12-month trailing average of 14.3%. The increase was
broad-based across age and education groups. The mean probability of
leaving one’s job voluntarily, or the expected quit rate, in the next
12 months decreased by 0.2 percentage point to 17.5%.
That last one is the most worrisome but it should speak to lower wage demand as well, something that should allow the Fed to cut rates more deeply. Along those lines, “Median one-year-ahead earnings growth expectations decreased by 0.1
percentage point to 2.5% in December, remaining below its 12-month
trailing average of 2.7%. The series has been moving within the 2.4% to
3.0% range since May 2021.”
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.
