2025-12-21 23:03:00
Happy Holidays! We’re heading into Christmas week, and it’s going to be a weird one globally.
We’ve got some major economic data drops (hello, U.S. GDP, UK GDP, Canada GDP, and Tokyo CPI!), then everything gets pretty quiet as the holidays take over.
Think of it as the market’s version of scarfing down a big meal on Monday-Tuesday before everyone passes out on the couch for the rest of the week.
Even I’m thinking about shutting down for the week…
The big question: Will the data shake things up enough to move markets before liquidity dries up?
With Christmas landing on Thursday and most traders already mentally checked out, even small surprises could create bigger-than-usual price swings. 🎢
That said, while Western markets are shutting down for Christmas, Japan and China stay open.
That means JPY and CNY pairs could see action when everyone else is offline.
🌍 Monday’s Global Kickoff: UK GDP, China LPR, and More
Monday, December 22, gives us action from both sides of the Atlantic before things get quiet.
UK Final Q3 GDP – 7:00 AM ET (12:00 GMT)
The UK kicks things off with the final Q3 GDP numbers. Expectations are for 0.1% QoQ and 1.3% YoY growth, confirming earlier estimates. This comes with UK Current Account and Business Investment data at the same time.
Why GBP traders care: These are final revisions, so surprises are rare. But any deviation from expectations could give the pound a jolt before the holiday shutdown. The UK is dealing with its own inflation concerns, so growth data matters for BoE policy expectations.
Also Dropping Monday:
- Chicago Fed Activity Index (U.S., ~8:30 AM ET) – Regional data, not a big mover
- Canada Industrial Product Price Index (8:30 AM ET) – Minor CAD data
- 2-Year Treasury Auction (U.S., 1:00 PM ET) – Watch if you trade bonds/yields
🎯 Tuesday’s Data Dump: U.S., Canada, and Australia
Tuesday, December 23, is when ALL the action happens globally. This is your “circle it in red on your calendar” moment.
We’re getting major releases from North America, while Australia’s RBA gives us their thinking from down under.
U.S. Q3 GDP Report (8:30 AM ET)
Remember that 43-day government shutdown from October through mid-November? Yeah, it messed up everyone’s US economic calendar.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) had to cancel the normal “advance” estimate that was supposed to drop on October 30.
We’re finally getting the Initial Estimate of Q3 2025 GDP on December 23, the first official look at whether the U.S. economy grew, shrank, or just kinda vibed during July-September.
Why USD traders care:
- Strong GDP = economy is healthy = Fed might keep rates higher for longer.
- Weak GDP = economy struggling = Fed might cut rates again sooner.
U.S. Inflation Data (8:30 AM ET)
The Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, the PCE Price Index, will get updated quarterly data for July-September published alongside Tuesday’s GDP release.
The BEA already released the September monthly PCE data back on December 5 (that was the delayed catch-up report), so we’re not getting brand new monthly numbers.
Instead, we’re getting the full quarterly picture embedded in the GDP report. The BEA will publish updated tables with the Q3 PCE data on Tuesday morning.
Why this matters: The Fed watches PCE inflation like a hawk. These quarterly revisions can shift the narrative on whether inflation is truly cooling or still running too hot.
Canada Monthly GDP for October (8:30 AM ET)
At the same time as the U.S. GDP drop, Canada releases its October monthly GDP.
This is the week’s only high-impact release for CAD traders, and Statistics Canada will also provide an advance estimate for November alongside this report.
Why CAD traders care: The Bank of Canada is in a delicate spot. After cutting rates earlier this year, it is now on hold at around 2.25%, and only a significantly weaker‑than‑expected economy would likely push it toward further cuts, which could weigh on the loonie.
RBA Meeting Minutes (7:30 PM ET / 11:30 AM Wednesday AEDT)
Australia’s RBA releases meeting minutes from its December policy meeting, when rates were held at 3.60%. Traders will scrutinize every word for clues on the RBA’s inflation assessment and future rate path. The Aussie dollar is sensitive to any shifts in RBA language.
U.S. Bonus Round (10:00 AM ET):
- Consumer Confidence (December): Are people feeling good about spending money, or are they clutching their wallets?
- New Residential Sales (August): Yes, this is delayed data from August that got pushed back by the shutdown. Not exactly a “current” housing snapshot, but it fills in the backlog.
Bank of Canada Summary of Deliberations (1:30 PM ET)
The BoC publishes its Summary of Deliberations, detailing the reasoning behind the December 10 decision to hold rates at 2.25%.
This provides insight into the Governing Council’s thinking. Could move CAD if there’s any unexpected hawkish or dovish language.
EU/UK Minor Data:
The Eurozone is basically quiet except for Germany Import Prices (2:00 AM ET) and Spain Q3 GDP Final (3:00 AM ET). Nothing that moves markets.
📊 Wednesday’s Last Gasp Before the Holiday (December 24)
Wednesday, December 24, gives us the final data point before markets peace out early for Christmas Eve.
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET)
How many people filed for unemployment last week?
This usually comes out on Thursday, but it’s shifted to Wednesday because of Christmas. Job market data always matters, especially with the Fed watching employment so closely.
Japan BOJ Meeting Minutes (6:50 PM ET Tuesday / 8:50 AM Wednesday JST)
Bank of Japan meeting minutes from the October 29-30 meeting were published alongside Japan’s Services Producer Price Index for November.
These provide historical context on BOJ thinking two months before they raised rates to 0.75% on December 19. It could give JPY traders some insight into the BOJ’s policy evolution.
🎄 Markets Close EARLY for Christmas Eve (1:00 PM ET)
Then at 1:00 PM ET, U.S. equity markets close early. Bond markets close at 2:00 PM ET.
European markets operate shortened hours or close entirely:
- London Stock Exchange closes early at 7:30 AM ET (12:30 GMT).
- Euronext markets close at 8:05 AM ET (14:05 CET).
- German, Swiss, and Italian exchanges are FULLY CLOSED.
- Toronto Stock Exchange closes early (check TSX calendar for exact time).
If you’re still trading after lunch on Wednesday, why?
🎅 Christmas Day: The World Stops (Except Japan and China)
Thursday, December 25, is Christmas Day!
Most global markets are CLOSED. No trading, no data, no nothing in the U.S., Europe, UK, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand.
Go spend time with your family or binge-watch something.
BUT WAIT! Japan and China Are Open!
Japan operates NORMALLY, and we’ve got a potentially market-moving event:
BOJ Governor Ueda Speech (Time TBD, typically morning JST / Wednesday night ET)
The Bank of Japan’s official schedule lists Governor Ueda speaking “At the Meeting of Councillors of Keidanren” on December 25, 2025.
Following the December 19 rate hike to 0.75% (the highest in 30 years), any comments on future policy direction could move JPY. This is interesting because it’s happening when Western liquidity is completely dead.
China PBOC MLF Operation (~7:00 PM ET / 9:00 AM Thursday Beijing time)
China conducts its monthly MLF (Medium-term Lending Facility) operation. This is primarily a liquidity management tool and tends to be less of a policy signal than in previous years. Not a major mover, but CNY traders should be aware.
Trading implication: JPY pairs could see WILD swings on Ueda’s speech because there’s zero Western participation. Spreads could get ridiculous.
🎁 Friday is Boxing Day: Markets “Open” But Probably Dead
Friday, December 26, is Boxing Day!
U.S. Markets: Technically OPEN
U.S. markets are actually OPEN with normal hours (9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET), even though the federal government is closed per President Trump’s executive order. The NYSE and Nasdaq made it clear they’re keeping normal hours regardless. 💰
But Friday will probably be a GHOST TOWN. Most institutional traders are on holiday. Volume will be thin. Don’t expect any real action.
Japan Tokyo CPI: The Week’s Final Major Release (6:30 PM ET Thursday / 8:30 AM Friday JST)
Japan’s Tokyo Core CPI for December releases on Friday morning Japan time (Thursday evening U.S. time)
The previous reading showed 2.8% YoY inflation. As a leading indicator for national CPI, this data will shape expectations for BOJ policy direction at the January meeting.
With Western markets basically offline, this could create outsized moves in JPY if the number surprises.
China Industrial Profits (7:30 PM ET Thursday / 9:30 AM Friday Beijing time)
China reports Industrial Profits year-to-date. October data showed +1.9% YTD growth but a concerning 5.5% YoY monthly decline. Not a huge market mover, but it gives insight into China’s economic health.
Boxing Day Closures:
The UK, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Germany, Switzerland, and Italy are all CLOSED for Boxing Day (or St. Stephen’s Day in some European countries).
For me, it’s Unboxing Day….unboxing my presents that is. 🎁
⚠️ What This Means for Your Trading
Liquidity is going to be TRASH. When fewer traders are active, it takes less money to move prices around. That means:
- Bigger swings on smaller news. With thin liquidity, automated trading algorithms can cause sudden drops
- Wider spreads. Your buy/sell spreads might be wider than usual, especially on minor pairs
- More slippage. Market orders might fill at worse prices
If you’re trading this week, use limit orders and maybe dial back your position sizes. This is NOT the week to YOLO into anything.
The Asian session opportunity:
- If you trade JPY or CNY pairs, this week offers unique opportunities.
- Japan’s Tokyo CPI on Friday morning (their time) and Governor Ueda’s Christmas Day speech could create significant moves when Western traders are completely absent.
- But remember: thin liquidity cuts both ways!
💼 Corporate Earnings? What Earnings?
The earnings calendar is basically empty across ALL markets.
No major companies are reporting anywhere in the world. This is the deadest earnings week of the entire year.
All eyes are on macro data instead of company-specific news.
🎯 The Bottom Line
Tuesday’s North American data dump (U.S. GDP, PCE inflation, Canada GDP, BoC deliberations) combined with Monday’s UK GDP and Friday’s Tokyo CPI could set the tone for how we close out 2025.
For USD traders: If the U.S. numbers come in hot (strong growth, sticky inflation), expect the “Fed is done cutting rates for now” narrative to dominate. If they come in soft (weak growth, falling inflation), rate cut hopes for Q1 2026 will get a boost.
For CAD traders: A weak Canadian GDP print could accelerate BoC rate cut expectations.
For JPY traders: Tokyo CPI and Governor Ueda’s speech are your main events, happening when the rest of the world is offline.
After Tuesday, though? Most markets go into hibernation mode until the final three trading days (Dec 29-31) and then the new year.
Tip: Maybe just enjoy the holidays. Forcing trades in thin, holiday markets is how you end up on the naughty list. 🎅
📋 Your Complete Global Week at a Glance
Monday, December 22
| Country | What’s Happening | Time (ET) | Potential Impact | Why You Care |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GB | UK GDP Q3 Final | 7:00 AM | High | Final UK growth numbers – GBP sensitive to revisions |
| GB | UK Current Account & Business Investment | 7:00 AM | Medium | More UK economic health checks |
| US | Chicago Fed Activity Index | ~8:30 AM | Low | Meh . Regional data, not a big mover. |
| CA | Industrial Product Price Index | 8:30 AM | Low | Minor CAD inflation input |
| US | 2-Year Treasury Auction | 1:00 PM | Medium | Watch if you trade bonds/yields |
Tuesday, December 23:🔥 THE BIG DAY 🔥
| Country | What’s Happening | Time (ET) | Potential Impact | Why You Should Care |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DE | Germany Import Prices | 2:00 AM | Low | Minor Eurozone inflation data |
| ES | Spain GDP Q3 Final | 3:00 AM | Low | Eurozone growth check-in |
| US | 🔥 Q3 GDP Initial Estimate | 8:30 AM | Very High | First official U.S. growth number for Q3 |
| US | 🔥 Q3 PCE Inflation Update | 8:30 AM | Very High | Fed’s favorite inflation gauge |
| CA | 🔥 Monthly GDP – October | 8:30 AM | High | Only major CAD release this week. May have BoC policy implications. |
| US | Consumer Confidence (Dec) | 10:00 AM | Medium | Are people scared or spending? |
| US | New Residential Sales (Aug, delayed) | 10:00 AM | Low | Shutdown backlog data. It’s stale but fills the gap. |
| US | 5-Year Treasury Auction | 1:00 PM | Medium | Bond market vibes |
| CA | BoC Summary of Deliberations | 1:30 PM | High | Why they held at 2.25. Any dovish hints move CAD. |
| JP | BOJ Meeting Minutes (Oct) | 6:50 PM | Medium | Historical context on BOJ thinking pre-rate hike |
| JP | Services PPI | 6:50 PM | Low | Japanese producer inflation. Minor data. |
| AU | RBA Meeting Minutes | 7:30 PM | High | Aussie rate path clues. AUD sensitive to language shifts. |
Wednesday, December 24: 🎄 Christmas Eve
| Country | What’s Happening | Time (ET) | Potential Impact | Why You Care |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GB | 🎄 Markets Close EARLY | 7:30 AM (12:30 GMT) | N/A | LSE shutting down for Christmas |
| EU | 🎄 Euronext Close EARLY | 8:05 AM (14:05 CET) | N/A | European markets winding down |
| US | Jobless Claims | 8:30 AM | Medium | Jobs market still tight? Fed watches closely |
| US | 7-Year Treasury Auction | ~11:30 AM | Low | Year-end bond flows |
| US | 🎄 Markets Close EARLY | 1:00 PM | N/A | Pack it up, Santa’s coming |
| CA | Markets Close EARLY | Afternoon | N/A | TSX shutting down |
| DE/CH/IT | Markets CLOSED | All Day | N/A | Germany/ Switzerland/ Italy fully closed |
Thursday, December 25 :🎅 Christmas Day
| Country | What’s Happening | Time (ET) | Potential Impact | Why You Care |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Multiple | 🎅 Christmas – CLOSED | All Day | N/A | Zero trading in US/EU/GB/CA /AU/NZ/CH |
| JP | BOJ Governor Ueda Speech | TBD (AM JST) | High | Could move JPY when everyone else is offline |
| CN | PBOC MLF Operation | ~7:00 PM | Low | Liquidity management. Not a major mover. |
Friday, December 26: Boxing Day
| Country | What’s Happening | Time (ET) | Potential Impact | Why You Care |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JP | Tokyo Core CPI (December) | 6:30 PM Thu | High | Leading indicator for BOJ policy, thin liquidity = big moves |
| CN | Industrial Profits YTD | 7:30 PM Thu | Low | China’s economic health check |
| US | Markets Open (But Dead) | 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM | Low | Technically open, but probably a zombie session. |
| GB/CA/AU/NZ | Boxing Day – CLOSED | All Day | N/A | More holiday closures |
