Fidelity’s latest Bitcoin chart pattern signals a 2026 “off-year” that could drag prices down to this brutal support level
تكنلوجيا اليوم
2025-12-19 18:35:00
Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer said Bitcoin may have completed another halving cycle in both price and time, and he placed support in the $65,000–$75,000 zone.
Sharing a “Bitcoin analogs” chart, the Fidelity director of global macro wrote,
“While I remain a secular bull on Bitcoin, my concern is that Bitcoin may well have ended another 4-year cycle halving phase, both in price and time.”
He added that October’s high near $125,000 fit historical bull-market alignments and that “Bitcoin winters have lasted about a year,” making 2026 a potential “year off.”
Bitcoin analogs point to a late-cycle cooling phase as time catches up with price
The chart bands Bitcoin’s history into bull (green blocks) and drawdown (red blocks) regimes, then overlays prior-cycle “top analogs” (notably 2013 and 2017) to map how late-cycle advances have tended to roll into a cooling window.
Its core message is that the time component has kept pace with the price component.
Prior peaks cluster into a topping window followed by a retracement phase that can run close to a year, which is why Timmer tied his call to both the rally’s duration and the peak’s level.
That setup overlaps with a late-cycle framework laid out in CryptoSlate’s cycle-clock analysis, which tracked a 2025 peak window by applying prior halving-to-top timing (about 526 days after the 2016 halving and about 546 days after the 2020 halving).
In that mapping, Bitcoin’s Oct. 6 print near $126,200 arrived inside the projected window.
It was followed by stalled follow-through and broad-range trade, with key support near $108,000.
More recent tape has tested whether the post-peak phase is turning into a deeper reset.
A liquidity and positioning read noted Bitcoin’s Nov. 4 dip to about $99,075 and described the move as a structural reset amid tighter liquidity and weaker willingness to maintain leveraged longs.
The same report cited CheckOnChain estimates of roughly $34 billion in monthly sell-side pressure as older coins returned to exchanges into softer demand.
It also highlighted a cost-basis concentration, with about 63% of invested capital above $95,000, a level traders monitor for holder behavior and feedback loops from forced selling.
Signs of a post-peak reset, and how deep it could go
Timmer’s $65,000–$75,000 band also falls inside the drawdown math presented in CryptoSlate’s bear-band model.
The framework notes that prior bear markets have lasted 12 to 18 months, with peak-to-trough declines of around 57% in 2018 and 76% in 2014.
It then argues that ETFs and deeper derivatives could change the path while leaving room for meaningful downside.
Using a 35%–55% drawdown band from $126,272 yields a trough zone around $82,000–$57,000, a bracket that contains Timmer’s support zone and ties it to a transparent range rather than a single point target.
The same math implies a low window that could land in late 2026 into early 2027 if the reset follows historical duration bands.
| 2026 scenario | What it looks like | Price zone | What to watch |
|---|---|---|---|
| “Off-year” winter (Timmer) | Range trade, lower highs, liquidation wicks | $75k–$65k (inside the ~$82k–$57k drawdown band) | ETF flows stay mixed to negative, repeated support tests, tight liquidity |
| Shallower reset | Drawdown, then choppy base-building | Upper half of the ~$82k–$57k band, drifting toward the mid-$60ks | Outflows stabilize, real yields ease, fewer forced sellers |
| Tail-risk deleveraging | Fast unwind with stress narratives taking hold | Below the band, with a $49k print outlined in one downside thesis | Persistently weak demand, heavier exchange inflows, impaired risk appetite |
| Cycle extension | Re-acceleration after reclaiming broken levels | Back above the prior range, challenging the post-ATH ceiling | Demand reversal through flows and breakout behavior, fading sell pressure |
The largest point of contention is whether the four-year template remains a workable baseline or whether market structure has diluted it.
In comments on the cycle’s fading influence, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan argued that ETFs, broader institutional access, and regulatory progress have reduced the boom-bust mechanics that once defined the cycle.
He expects ETF-driven adoption to play out over a longer horizon, a view that clashes with the idea of 2026 as a designated “off-year.”
Why 2026’s macro backdrop could turn ETF flows into Bitcoin’s dominant price driver
Even if cycle timing weakens, macro conditions can still shape the path because they influence ETF flow behavior.
A 2026 macro outlook cited Bank of America’s base case for 2.4% US real GDP growth in 2026 and a rates regime easing toward the mid-3% range by end-2026, a backdrop that can keep real yields mildly positive.
The same piece noted that Bitcoin ETFs can swing by more than $1 billion in a day, making ETF flows a primary transmission channel for shifts in yields and the dollar into spot demand.
For 2026, the near-term decision points cluster around where holders’ and flows’ support meet.
The $95,000 cost-basis shelf frames a first stress test for positioning, while the $76,000 support map sits near the top of Timmer’s band and inside the broader drawdown bracket.
Timmer’s analog framing is that if the last phase ended in both price and time, the next phase is a winter that can last about a year, with support centered in the $65,000–$75,000 region.
