Ether (ETH) has oscillated around $3,000 for the past three weeks, a consolidation period following its flash crash to $2,620 on Nov. 21. Ether traders are now questioning the likelihood of a further correction if support at $2,800 is lost.
Key takeaways:
Ether slid below $3,000 again due to a lack of futures demand and aggressive selling by long-term holders.
Declining Ethereum network fees and activity suggest lower onchain demand.
Weak technical setups warned of a drop to $2,300 if the next support is lost.
ETH price stuck between two trendlines
Ether’s recent recovery was rejected by resistance from the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA), which currently sits at $3,260, as shown on the daily chart below.
Related: Ether price trend forecasts triple-digit rally as ETH ETF inflows resume
This move, however, saw ETH/USD find support from the $2,800-$2,600 demand zone. The 200-week EMA is currently within this zone.
ETH must rise above the resistance at $3,000 and surpass the 50-day EMA to break out of consolidation for a sustained recovery toward $4,000.
The Glassnode cost basis distribution heatmap showed resistance between $3,100 and $3,250, where investors acquired roughly 5.9 million ETH.
On the downside, the key support area is around $2,800, where 5.8 million ETH were previously purchased.
Ether price lacks bullish momentum
Ether futures are currently trading at a 3% premium relative to bearish ETH spot markets, reflecting declining demand from buyers using leverage.
In bearish market conditions, futures premiums typically stay below 5%, signaling weak demand for leveraged long positions and less optimism among traders.
More concerningly, even last week’s recovery to $3,750 did not restore sustained bullish sentiment among traders.
The bearish trend in Ether futures coincided with a decline in long-term holder supply, which has decreased by 847,222 coins over the past 30 days, the largest drop since January 2021. This adds to the sell-side pressure that keeps ETH from staying above $3,000.
Ether’s inability to stay above $3,000 can also be attributed to the decline in Ethereum network fees, although this issue has affected the entire cryptocurrency market.
Ethereum chain fees totaled $15.1 million over the past 30 days, representing a 45% decrease from the previous month. By comparison, fees on BNB Chain dropped 56%, and Tron experienced a 15% decline.
Although the number of active addresses on Ethereum’s base layer increased by 3.5% over the same period, it has decreased by 14% over the last seven days. The number of transactions is down by 11% over a seven-day period.
Ethereum bears target $2,300 ETH price
The ETH/USD pair has validated a bear flag on the daily chart after dropping below its lower boundary at $3,200, as shown below.
“Ethereum is consolidating after a sharp sell-off, forming a bear flag beneath prior support near the 3,173 to 3,250 zone,” said analyst Danny Naz in an X post on Sunday, adding:
“That area has flipped to resistance.”
The measured target of the flag is $2,300, representing a 22% drop from the current price.
Zooming into the 12-hour time frame, a break and a close below the lower trendline of a megaphone pattern at $2,800 would open the way for a deeper correction toward the measured target of the pattern at $2,376.
Such a move would represent an 18% drop from the current price.
If this support fails and the bears manage to pull the price below $2,800, ETH price could descend to the next $2,716 to $2,623 support zone.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
