Event Guide: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Report (November 2025)

Tuesday’s November payrolls report carries exceptional uncertainty after the 43-day government shutdown disrupted data collection, leaving markets to navigate potentially unreliable readings that could trigger exaggerated moves in thin holiday trading.

With consensus expecting just 55K jobs added and unemployment potentially jumping to 4.6%, the release will test whether labor market cooling validates the soft-landing narrative or reignites recession fears that force aggressive repricing of the Fed’s 2026 trajectory.

Here are points you should know if you’re planning on trading the anticipated U.S. jobs releases!