investingLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Yen moves higher on BoJ data & expectations

• Japan Tertiary Industry Index October +0.9% m/m (beats expected of +0.2% & prior +0.3%)
• Citi forecasts 2 RBA rate hikes in 2026, February followed by May, as inflation risks rise
• Indian rupee hits record low, downtrend remains despite likely RBI intervention
• China yuan hits 14-month high even as weak consumer demand clouds economic growth outlook
• China signals more policy support (same old?) as economy ‘stabilises’ in November
• BOJ Tankan and comments lift December hike odds, yen firms
• RBNZ Governor Breman: If economy evolves as expected, current 2.5% rate likely remains
• China Nov Retail Sales (YoY) 1.3% (exp 2.9%) & Industrial Production (YoY) 4.8% (exp 5.0%)
• China November new house prices -0.4% m/m and -2.4% y/y
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.0656 (vs. estimate at 7.0569)
• Roomba maker iRobot files for bankruptcy, cedes control to supplier
• China Vanke fails to secure delay on $284m bond payment, gets just 5 days breathing space
• BOJ official says Tankan shows easing trade fears but rising cost pressures
• UK asking house prices fall sharply in December, Rightmove says
• Bank of Japan Tankan shows large manufacturing index improved from Q3
• Rollover for U.S. Equity Index Futures is Monday, December 15, 2025: What You Need to Know
• NZD forecast downgraded as NZIER cuts near-term growth outlook
• Intervention watch – South Korea extends bond market stabilisation programmes into 2026
• Fortescue to buy remaining stake in Alta Copper for CAD139m
• Early market response cite Bondi terrorist attack as AUD weight
• Musk says small nuclear reactors ‘super dumb’
• China to issue ultra-long-term bonds to fund strategic priorities – weekend announcement
• Hassett says Trump is a lightweight on the Federal Reserve
• Kuwait’s oil minister said recent slide in crude prices unexpected, fair oil price $60–68
• RBNZ files civil proceedings against ASB over Anti-Money Laundering breaches
• Ukraine offers to drop NATO bid as U.S.-led peace talks continue
• New Zealand services sector sinks deeper into contraction in November
• Monday morning open levels – indicative forex prices – 15 December 2025

Japan’s corporate sentiment remained broadly stable in the Bank of Japan’s December Tankan survey, with large manufacturers’ sentiment holding steady and services-sector conditions remaining elevated. While profit expectations softened and labour shortages persisted, follow-up comments from a BOJ official highlighted easing trade uncertainty, improved cost pass-through and resilient demand, particularly linked to AI and semiconductors. Rising labour costs and price pressures were cited as headwinds, but overall the data and commentary reinforced the case for gradual policy normalisation. The BOJ is widely expected to deliver a rate hike at its December 18–19 meeting.

In FX markets, the yen initially weakened following the Tankan release, with USD/JPY pushing toward the 156.00 level in early trade. However, the move quickly reversed as markets digested the details, with the pair sliding back to around 155.30, reflecting growing sensitivity to BOJ policy expectations.

—

NZD/USD lost ground on remarks from Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Breman hinting at a further move lower in rates, if needed.

—

Over the weekend, China’s finance ministry said it plans to issue ultra-long-term special government bonds next year, with proceeds earmarked for key national strategies, security initiatives and industrial upgrading. The announcement signals ongoing fiscal support, though the lack of detail around specific projects limited immediate market reaction.

Stress in the property sector remains acute. Bonds issued by China Vanke were sold heavily, with the developer still locked in negotiations with bondholders just one business day ahead of a key maturity and no agreement yet in place. Fresh data underscored the depth of the downturn, with new home prices falling month-on-month for a 30th straight month and existing home prices declining for a 31st consecutive month.

November activity data painted a mixed picture. Retail sales growth slowed sharply, reflecting weak consumer demand amid falling household wealth. The National Bureau of Statistics said the economy had “stabilised while improving,” citing firmer momentum in parts of industrial production and services, but acknowledged ongoing challenges. Officials pledged to step up counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical policy adjustments, signalling readiness to deploy further support if needed, though no specific measures were announced.

—

In regional FX, the onshore yuan climbed to a 14-month high, while the Indian rupee continued to weaken, drawing further intervention from the Reserve Bank of India.

Geopolitics

Ukraine signalled a potential shift in its war aims, with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy indicating a willingness to drop NATO membership ambitions as peace talks with U.S. envoys in Berlin showed signs of progress.

—

Note:

Rollover for U.S. equity index futures takes place on Monday, December 15, with liquidity expected to migrate into the next contract as volume and open interest shift.

Asia-Pac
stocks:

• Japan
  (Nikkei 225) -1.47%
• Hong
  Kong (Hang Seng) -0.92%
• Shanghai
  Composite -0.11%
• Australia
  (S&P/ASX 200) -0.77%