The US treasury auctioned $22B of 30 year bonds at a high yield of 4.773%

The US treasury has auctioned off $22Bof 30 year bonds at a high yield of 4.773%

The WI (when-issued) level at the time of the auction was 4.774%

The results of a US Treasury auction act as a real-time “report card” on the market’s appetite for US government debt. Because US Treasuries are the risk-free benchmark for the entire global financial system, the results ripple across all asset classes—stocks, currencies, and commodities.

Given the auction result, my AUCTION GRADE: B

US Treasury Auction Process: Key Components

The US Treasury auction process determines the yield (interest rate) the government pays on its debt. The market effectively “votes” on the price of US debt through this mechanism.

1. The “WI” Level (When-Issued) was 4.774%

• Definition: “When-Issued” refers to trading that occurs in the time between the announcement of an auction and the actual auction itself.

• Significance: It serves as the market’s “price consensus” or expected yield leading up to the deadline. It anchors the market’s expectations.

2. The Tail -0.1 basis point vs the 6 month average of 0.3 basis points

3. Bid-to-Cover Ratio 2.36X vs the 6 month average of 2.36X

4. The Bidders

The Treasury breaks down buyers into three categories to show who is buying the debt:

• Indirect Bidders 65.4% vs the 6 month average of 63.7%

  • Who they are: Foreign central banks, international investors, and some domestic investment managers placing bids through a primary dealer.

  • Significance: Often viewed as a proxy for foreign demand. High indirect participation is generally seen as bullish (strong global confidence in US debt).

• Direct Bidders 23.5% vs the 6 month average of 23.9%:

  • Who they are: Domestic money managers, insurance companies, hedge funds, and individuals placing bids directly with the Treasury (bypassing dealers).

  • Significance: Represents “real money” domestic demand.

• Primary Dealers 11.2% vs the 6-month average of 12.5%

  • Who they are: Large banks (e.g., Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan) designated by the NY Fed. They are required to bid in every auction.

  • Significance: They act as the “backstop.” They buy whatever supply the Directs and Indirects don’t take. A high Dealer award is generally bearish (bad), as it means the banks are stuck holding excess inventory they must now try to sell into the secondary market.

Debt Statistics & This Week’s Auction Data

Total US Public Debt Outstanding:

As of early December 2025, the total public debt outstanding is approximately $38.4 trillion.

Treasury Auctions for the Week of December 8, 2025:

The Treasury issued the following amounts in the 3, 10, and 30-year maturities this week: