2025-12-10 23:23:00
The precious metals analysts at RBC Capital Markets are out with a massive call, forecasting more upside for gold over the next two years.
Despite gold already ripping 60% higher year-to-date in 2025, RBC believes the rally has continued legs. They argue that central bank buying and investment demand have fundamentally reinforced gold’s value as a non-sovereign asset.
The new price deck:
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2026 Average: $4,600/oz
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2026 Year-End: $4,800/oz
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2027 Average: $5,100/oz
The 4 Key Drivers
RBC outlines four themes underpinning this bullish view:
- Geopolitics: “Hostile global policy” is dividing economies and reshaping growth outlooks.
- AI Impact: Technological change is adding to uncertainties regarding inflation and growth.
- Monetary Policy: Softer policy is on the horizon, even with inflation sticking above target.
- The Debt Trap: High government indebtedness and budget deficits remain an “enduring headwind.”
Perhaps the most interesting note for equity traders is RBC’s take on miner behavior. Historically, producers act pro-cyclically—spending recklessly on M&A and capex when prices rise, which destroys returns.
RBC says this time is different.
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Producers are focused on deleveraging and dividends.
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Sector net debt to EBITDA is sitting at zero (that’s right 0.0x)
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2026 margins are forecast at an impressive $1,470/oz (that’s 7x higher than 2023).
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Reserves are being calculated conservatively at <$2,000/oz (less than 50% of current spot prices).
Stock Moves: Royalty plays get the nod
With the new commodity deck, analyst Josh Wolfson is shuffling the ratings. He views royalty companies as trading at attractive valuations and better insulated from cost risks than the producers.
Upgrades:
Downgrades:
