2025-12-10 21:26:00
The calendar is looking a bit top-heavy for the Thursday session in Asia. While we have some Japanese flow data and a check-in on the UK housing market, the main event is inarguable — the Australian labor market report.
We kick things off at 2145 GMT with New Zealand Manufacturing Sales for Q3. The prior read was a soft -2.9% and there is no consensus but I would expect a bounce.
Then, attention turns to Tokyo at 23:50. We’ll get the Business Survey Index (BSI) Large Manufacturing for Q4. Again, there is no consensus but the prior was +3.8%.
The Main Event is Australian Employment Data
At 00:30, the trading will pick up significantly as the Australian Bureau of Statistics drops the November employment numbers. Last month we saw a solid print, but the expectations are for a bit of a cooldown this time around to a still-robust +20.0K. I strongly suspect the RBA saw these numbers before yesterday’s hawkish hold.
Here is what economist are looking for:
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Employment Change: Expected to add 20.0k jobs (down from the hefty 42.2k prior).
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Unemployment Rate: Expected to tick up slightly to 4.4% (from 4.3%).
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Participation Rate: Expected to hold steady at 67.0%.
The “full time” employment component (Prior 55.3k) is always be key. If we see headline weakness but full-time jobs remain robust, the AUD should stay firm but watch Feb hike pricing data, which is currently a shade below 25%. If the unemployment rate ticks up beyond 4.4% forget about the Feb hike and AUD will slip.
Also of note at 00:01 GMT is the UK RICS Housing Survey. It’s expected to slide further to -21 from -19, signaling continued pressure in the British property market.
Here is the schedule for the session:
21:45
23:50
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JP: Foreign Bond Investment – Prior: -771.3B
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JP: Foreign Invest JP Stock – Prior: 655.6B
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JP: Business Survey Index (BSI) Large Manufacturing (Q4) – Prior: 3.8%
00:01
00:30
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AU: Employment Change (Nov) – Exp: 20.0k / Prior: 42.2k
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AU: Unemployment Rate (Nov) – Exp: 4.4% / Prior: 4.3%
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AU: Participation Rate (Nov) – Exp: 67.0% / Prior: 67.0%
There are no major speeches scheduled but we will watch out for the fallout from the Fed and the usual tirades from Trump on Truth Social.
