The FOMC rate decision has FX traders on edge. What technical levels should traders eye?

Overview

The Federal Reserve will release its rate decision at 2:00 PM ET, with markets broadly expecting a 25-basis-point cut. While a cut is anticipated, the real market-moving impact will come from the wording of the statement and Chair Powell’s press conference, which traders will analyze as a proxy for the stance of the full voting committee.

Expectations are firmly centered on a hawkish cut, meaning the Fed may reduce rates while signaling a cautious stance, emphasizing data dependency rather than a full easing cycle.

Market Pricing and Rate Expectations

Rate-pricing dynamics reflect uncertainty about how aggressively the Fed will ease:

• January meeting: Only 23% probability of another cut

• March meeting: 43% probability

• June meeting: Pricing jumps to 76%, suggesting markets expect stronger political pressure or clearer economic deterioration by then

By mid-year, the Fed will also have a new Chair, and markets anticipate the potential for political pressure from President Trump to steer the bias toward additional cuts. How this evolves remains uncertain, but traders will parse Powell’s tone for clues.

What to Watch in the Statement & Press Conference

Clarity will come from how Powell characterizes:

• The current inflation trajectory

• The tightness or loosening of labor markets

• Whether this cut is viewed as insurance or the continuation of the cycle

• How the Fed plans to respond to data arriving after the recent government-data delays

Over the next few weeks, key employment and inflation releases will help confirm or challenge the Fed’s evolving stance.

Technical Roadmap for Major Currency Pairs

As always on major Fed days, each currency pair has its own technical “story.” In the video above, I break down four major FX pairs — EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD, and USDCAD — highlighting the bias, key targets, and specific risk levels for both dovish and hawkish outcomes.

Understanding both sides of the roadmap is essential:

• If the tone is more dovish: What levels open the door for the move lower in the USD

• If the tone is more hawkish: What are the levels in the upside for the USD.

• Where is the technical line in the sand for each pair?

These levels frame the battle lines for traders heading into the event.

Why a Roadmap Matters

High-impact events like the FOMC bring uncertainty, volatility, and often false starts. Having clear directional levels in both directions helps traders:

Today’s announcement—and Powell’s tone—will set the stage for the next phase of market direction across currencies.

Be aware. Be prepared should be the motto for all traders. The video above, will allow traders to do just that.