2025-12-09 02:04:00
The RBA decision is at 2:30 pm Sydney time or 0330 GMT or 10:30 pm in New York. There is a news conference an hour later and that will be critical.
I find the RBA to be a critical central bank to watch as it’s at the leading edge of the large group of central banks that cut rates following the inflation spike but has now found a bottom. The next move — it appears — will be to start hiking rates. The timing of that is what has my attention and here is what the market sees in terms of probabilities.
- Feb 3 (next meeting): 16% chance of a hike
- March 17: 33% chance of a hike
- May 5: 53% chance of a hike
- June 16: 78% chance of a hike
- Aug 11: 1 hike fully priced in, small chance of a second
- Dec 8: 1 hike fully priced in, 60% chance of a second
If the RBA and Bullock are hawkish, look for those numbers to creep higher, though it’s premature to expect any kind of strong short-term signal.
