2025-11-25 08:29:00
Recent Oil Market Drivers
Crude oil remains under pressure as fresh geopolitical and supply news adds to an already heavy macro backdrop. Russia and China signaled interest in expanding oil exports despite ongoing US sanctions that are squeezing several major producers. At the same time, Canada appears close to approving a key heavy-oil pipeline connecting Alberta to the British Columbia coast, a development that may boost longer-term supply capacity. On the technical front, crude recently settled at 58.84 and briefly tested the 100 hour moving average during a rebound attempt, but that bounce failed to convert into sustained strength.
These news items reinforce an environment where supply remains steady to rising, placing more weight on downside scenarios unless clear bullish triggers emerge.
Crude Oil Market Snapshot
(prices are for futures, ticker CL1!)
Price at time of analysis: 58.62
Month to date: minus 5%
Three months: minus 7.34%
Year to date: minus 18%
This week: minus 1.76%
Since yesterday’s close: minus 0.37%
Crude remains a structurally weak asset this quarter. The significant support low at 55.96, in place since 20 October, still holds for now. The broader April to September base around 55.12 also remains intact, but sellers are showing persistence and nothing rules out a break below these levels if momentum intensifies.
Bearish below 58.65.
Bullish above 58.80.
Current price sits just below the bearish threshold, which technically activates the short side. Conservative traders may wait for a clearer dwell below 58.65, but strictly speaking, the bearish plan is live. The bullish side only activates if crude climbs above 58.80 with follow through.
(Active while price stays under 58.65)
Below are the bearish partial profit targets, each with a distinct technical justification.
58.53
Tactical liquidity pocket that often gets cleared early in a downside extension. Useful for quick risk reduction, not for moving stops.
58.42
Just beneath the session low and aligned with the second lower VWAP deviation. tradeCompass traders typically move the stop to entry once this target is hit.
58.28
Located well above yesterday’s VWAP but intersects a notable liquidity pool from the previous session. Clean place for another scale out.
58.02
Sits just above yesterday’s value area low, often a level where responsive buyers appear briefly. Logical ladder exit.
57.52
In line with the low from two days ago. If reached, market sentiment is likely deteriorating again.
If crude breaks below 57.40, swing traders can begin monitoring 55.00 as the next medium term bearish objective.
(Only active if price climbs and holds above 58.80)
59.02
First upside magnet and early liquidity pocket.
59.32
Aligned with the VWAP from 19 November. Often acts as a pull target during intraday rebounds.
59.61
Upper liquidity zone that tends to attract price during stronger intraday pushes.
59.98
A round number magnet and another key 19 November reference level.
For swing traders, a sustained break above 60.10 opens the door toward 61.47 as the next medium-term target.
Crude has traded in a clear range between 57.5 and 60 for more than three days. There is no technical evidence yet of a breakout either way. Until one of the outer bands is convincingly breached, markets should expect rotational behavior. tradeCompass thresholds help position for that rotation while still keeping traders prepared for a breakout when it finally comes.
Today’s plan makes heavy use of VWAP standard deviations. These bands expand and contract throughout the session based on real trading activity. When price pushes into a lower deviation band during a downtrend, it often signals either exhaustion or the next acceleration. This is why several partial profit levels align with deviation boundaries. They serve as both magnets and potential turning points.
Use one trade per direction as defined by tradeCompass.
Move your stop to entry after hitting the second target.
Do not place your stop beyond the opposite threshold since crossing that level invalidates the idea.
Final Note
This is decision-support content, not investment advice. Markets can move quickly and traders should always manage position size and risk carefully. Visit investingLive.com for additional views.
