Unless you were too busy checking out your AI investments, you should know that the Bank of England (BOE) held its interest rates at 4%, but just barely.
The vote split 5 to 4, with four members wanting to cut immediately, much tighter than the 6 to 3 economists expected. Governor Andrew Bailey cast the deciding vote to wait, but his comments made it clear: a December rate cut is coming.
Here’s what happened, why markets reacted the way they did, and what to watch next.
What Happened: A Knife-Edge Decision
On Thursday, the BOE held interest rates at 4% after its closest vote in this rate-cutting cycle:
- 5 members voted to hold
- 4 wanted an immediate 25 basis point cut to 3.75%
Why they held: The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) needs more evidence that inflation is hitting the Bank’s 2% target. CPI inflation peaked at 3.8%, but apparently, they want “further progress on disinflation.” The decision also came three weeks before Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s Autumn Budget on November 26.
What changed: The MPC noted “the risk from greater inflation persistence has become less pronounced, and the risk to medium term inflation from weaker demand more apparent.” They are now more worried about weak growth than sticky inflation, a major shift.
Bailey’s signal: He said “policy is still restrictive, but it’s past peak restriction” and emphasized waiting for December to see two more inflation and labor market reports.
The Bank has cut rates five times since August 2024. This was a dovish pause, NOT a hawkish hold.
Why It Matters: How Markets Reacted
Markets viewed the close vote as confirmation easier policy is coming.
GBP 1-hour Charts Chart by TradingView
The British pound was stable heading into the release, dipped on the news and then rebounded within the next hour. From the, GBP traded mixed against the majors, signaling that traders likely shifted focus to other catalysts in the U.S. session.
U.K. government bonds rallied. The 10 year gilt yield fell 3 basis points to around 4.47%. Lower yields mean higher bond prices, showing markets expect lower rates ahead.
FTSE 100 – the U.K.’s main stock index closed lower, possibly reflecting caution about the November 26 Budget and expected tax increases.
The MPC said if disinflation continues, “Bank Rate is likely to continue on a gradual downward path” and dropped the word “careful” from guidance. That tells us the MPC is now likely putting more weight on downside risks to growth, a major shift from its previous meetings.
What to Watch: Three Key Dates
October Inflation Data (November 19): The CPI report is forecast to show inflation peaking at 4%. The current inflation is 3.8% for three straight months. If October meets or beats expectations, it reinforces the disinflation trend Bailey wants to see.
The Autumn Budget (November 26): Chancellor Reeves is expected to announce tax rises to fill a £20–50 billion fiscal hole. Tax increases drag on growth, strengthening the case for rate cuts. Watch for income tax rises, National Insurance changes, and wealth taxes.
The Next BoE Decision (December 18): Markets are pricing in a high probability of a 25bp cut. Bailey suggested rates could be cut “at least twice” in 2026 to 3.50%.
Labor market data also matters: wage growth is cooling to 4.7%, and unemployment rose to 4.8%, both supporting the case for cuts.
Key Lessons for Newbie Traders
Close votes reveal direction. The 5 to 4 split shows the committee leaned dovish. Four members wanted to cut immediately.
Forward guidance matters most. The Bank dropped “careful” from guidance and emphasized a “gradual downward path,” that is your roadmap.
Fiscal and monetary policy interact. The Bank waited to see the Budget before cutting. Tax increases justify rate cuts to support growth.
Data drives positioning. With December likely priced in, watch inflation and labor data to gauge the pace of future cuts.
Relative rates matter for sterling. If the Fed stays higher while the BoE cuts, that is bearish for GBP/USD.
The Bottom Line
The 5 to 4 vote revealed a committee ready to resume cutting, just waiting for confirmation inflation is under control.
Unless inflation surprises badly, prepare for a December cut and steady easing through 2026. The close vote removed uncertainty, UK rates are heading down. For pound traders, the near term path may be sideways to lower, especially if the Budget disappoints and other central banks stay higher.
