2025-11-07 07:50:00
Ahead of the meeting yesterday, Morgan Stanley noted that:
“Our base case is for the next move in February, although the risks of a cut in
4Q are high – not just due to how close the debate and the vote split on the MPC might be
next week, but also given our forecasts for weak growth and a rising unemployment rate
into the December meeting. In addition, we see fiscal risks as receding – there might not be
much need to wait until February to digest a straightforwardly contractionary Budget.”
So, it’s just a minor shift forward in the timeline as they see the balance of risks calling for a quicker pace of rate cuts – at least when compared to their earlier projection. As a reminder, Morgan Stanley is forecasting a terminal rate of 2.75% – one of the lower ones among all other analysts.
