The USD is little changed to start the NA session. What technical levels are in play?

The USD is little changed to start the North American session, with traders showing hesitation ahead of the next catalyst. The EURUSD remains confined within a tight 20-pip range — exceptionally narrow and indicative of a market waiting for a shove in either direction.

In USDJPY, sellers made a push below the 200-hour moving average but failed to sustain momentum. The pair has since rebounded and now sits between the 100-hour MA at 153.918 and the 200-hour MA at 153.23, leaving short-term direction in balance.

Meanwhile, the GBPUSD has stalled its slide from yesterday near a modest swing level at 1.3013, falling short of the key swing area between 1.2970–1.2988. The 50% retracement of the recent rise sits just below at 1.2943 — a key level for sellers aiming to extend downside momentum. On the topside, there’s little resistance until last week’s low near 1.3100, followed by stronger resistance at the 38.2% retracement and swing level near 1.3142.

In the video, I break down each of the three major pairs — EURUSD, USDJPY, and GBPUSD — outlining the technical bias, targets, and risk levels that matter most for today’s trade setups.

At 8:15 AM, the market will be treated to a private employment report with the ADP National Employment index. It is expected to rise by 28K vs -32K last week. The ADP recently changed including.

• Weekly Preliminary Estimate: In October 2025, ADP began publicly releasing a preliminary estimate of U.S. private-sector employment on a weekly cadence. This estimate provides a four-week moving average of weekly job changes, available every Tuesday, and is designed to provide a high-frequency view of the labor market with a two-week lag.
• Contextual Insight: This weekly data has gained particular relevance during periods when the official government BLS reports are delayed (e.g., due to a government shutdown), providing markets with a timely indicator of labor market conditions

The changes reflect an effort to provide a more accurate, detailed, and timely picture of the U.S. private-sector labor market using ADP’s extensive, real-world payroll data.

At 10 AM the ISM non-manufacturing data will be released with the expectation of 50.8 vs 50.0 last month.

At 10:30 the weekly oil inventory data will be released with crude oil expected at a build of 0.603M vs -6.858M last week.

• Dow industrial average is +21 points
• S&P is down -2 points
• Nasdaq is down -23 points.

In the US debt market:

• 2 year yield 3.571%, -1.2 basis points
• 5 year yield 3.694%, -0.9 basis points
• 10 year yield 4.083%, -0.8 basis points
• 30 year yield 4.668%, -0.3 basis points.