This Pattern Has Emerged Three Times Since Late 2023, Triggering BTC Price Corrections

Bitcoin BTC$101,726.66 briefly fell below $100,000 for the first time since June on Tuesday, reaching lows of around $98,951. The drop took the largest cryptocurrency below two key support levels needed to sustain the current bull market, fueling concerns the decline may gather steam.

The two levels, the 365-day simple moving average (SMA) and the 365-day exponential moving average (EMA), are currently $102,055 and $99,924, respectively. Both have already been tested during this bull cycle.

In August 2024, bitcoin used the 365-day SMA, the average closing price over that period giving equal weight to each, as a key support level around $48,963, while briefly dipping below the EMA price, which gives more weight to recent readings. Then, during April’s “tariff tantrum,” bitcoin dropped as low as $76,500, breaking below both moving averages before reclaiming them shortly after.

Where is the selling pressure coming from?

The selling pressure continues to come from long-term holders, defined as investors who have held their bitcoin for at least 155 days. The supply held by this cohort is now about 14.4 million BTC, down from more than 14.7 million BTC at the peak in July.

This marks the third notable wave of selling by this group since late 2023. Each time has added downward pressure that leads to price consolidation or even corrections — drops of 10% or more — after a period of rallying prices. The previous instance occurred during the November 2024 rally following President Trump’s election victory.