The Nationwide Soccer League (NFL) season begins Thursday evening and bettors are dashing to crypto-based prediction market Polymarket to put their early-season slips.
Already, greater than $600,000 has been wagered on the opener between the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys, a sum that eclipses the roughly £150,000 ($201,000) taken in by Europe’s largest betting alternate, Betfair. It is nonetheless little greater than a rounding error on the $100 million or extra in wagering typically seen on particular person soccer video games by way of conventional channels.
From Politics to Pigskin
Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan stated Wednesday that the corporate had acquired the all-clear from the U.S. Commodity Futures Buying and selling Fee (CFTC), granting it the power to function throughout all 50 states, together with these like Texas the place conventional sports activities betting is prohibited.
The regulatory breakthrough adopted a extensively seen social media advertising marketing campaign that teased, “Authorized soccer buying and selling is coming to ALL 50 states this fall.”
The timing couldn’t be extra essential. In accordance with Dune Analytics, Polymarket’s volumes have slumped in 2025, falling from a $2 billion file excessive in November in the course of the U.S. election frenzy to simply $664 million in August.
Whereas anticipated, the drop illustrates Polymarket’s dependence on political cycles. In the course of the election, the platform turned a media barometer, with markets usually cited alongside conventional polls to trace candidate efficiency.
After the votes had been counted, volumes cooled and a spotlight shifted to novelty markets, generally controversially, resembling wagers on whether or not Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy would don a swimsuit earlier than July.
A $107 Billion Market Beckons
The pivot towards sports activities comes as sports activities betting stays a juggernaut business, value an estimated $107 billion in 2024.
Early indicators recommend Polymarket might seize significant share: this yr alone, customers have wagered over $55 million on MLB World Collection markets, hinting that NFL betting volumes might speed up because the season matures.
The NFL is especially prized. Not solely does it draw America’s largest fan base, however it additionally fuels betting spikes week after week by way of fantasy leagues, sportsbooks, and now, prediction markets.
Able to Tackle the Trade
With the CFTC’s inexperienced gentle and an NFL launch producing volumes that rival conventional bookmakers, Polymarket is positioning itself to tackle the broader sports activities betting business.
Its mannequin stays distinct: as an alternative of wagering towards a home, customers commerce contracts with one another, with costs shifting like markets in actual time. This construction makes Polymarket perform much less like a sportsbook and extra like an alternate, the place odds are set by the collective actions of merchants fairly than by oddsmakers.
That distinction might show disruptive. By mixing prediction markets with mainstream sports activities, Polymarket isn’t simply getting into a $100 billion-plus business, it’s altering how sports activities followers can speculate on the outcomes.
