Glassnode’s HODL Waves visualize the distribution of bitcoin provide throughout completely different age bands. Every coloured band represents the proportion of BTC final moved inside the time-frame proven within the legend.
The latest narrative round bitcoin’s declining worth has targeted on OG whales (long-time holders with giant balances) promoting their cash. That is partly true, as highlighted by Galaxy facilitating an 80,000 BTC transaction and different notable actions over the previous few months. Bitcoin additionally crossed the milestone of $100,000 throughout the previous 12 months, a stage that seemingly triggered promoting for a lot of traders.
Nonetheless, Glassnode’s knowledge suggests this promoting will not be the dominant story. Cash held for 7 to 10 years now account for over 8.1% of provide, the best stage since 2019. Whereas whole circulating provide has continued to shrink, the expansion on this cohort signifies outdated provide is accumulating at a sooner fee than cash being offered.
The ten plus yr cohort reinforces this development. They now management about 17% of provide, and their share has solely elevated over time.
Against this, the 5 to 7 yr holders have seen a decline. They held round 10% of provide firstly of 2023, however this has dropped to only 5%. Many of those cash had been acquired through the 2019 to 2020 interval, most notably when bitcoin traded close to $3,000 through the Covid crash. This group seems to be distributing steadily.
Briefly, whereas OG cash are certainly being offered, the broader narrative of widespread old-wallet promoting appears to be overstated. The info exhibits a extra nuanced image, with older cohorts persevering with to develop their share of provide whilst some mid-term holders take earnings.
