Key takeaways:
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BTC’s 700% rally from $15,500 to $124,500 suggests a market prime in 2 to three months, based mostly on previous cycles.
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Bitcoin provide in revenue has been elevated for 273 days, signaling a possible cycle peak quickly.
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Bitcoin dangers dropping into the $90,000-$100,000 vary if the psychological help at $110,000 is misplaced.
Bitcoin (BTC) is struggling to reclaim $114,000 on Thursday, as a convergence of onchain metrics alerts waning bullish momentum and a traditional setup for a market late in its cycle.
The Bitcoin market is nearing a cycle prime
Bitcoin has had an unbelievable efficiency over the past three years, rising as a lot as 700% to an all-time excessive of $124,500 final week from a cycle low of $15,500 reached in November 2022.
When put next with previous cycles, this efficiency means that BTC worth is roughly two to 3 months away from the cycle prime, in accordance with market intelligence agency Glassnode.
Associated: Bitcoin analysts level to ‘manipulation’ as BTC worth falls to 17-day low
In its newest Week On-chain report, Glassnode stated:
“In each the 2015–2018 and 2018–2022 cycles, the all-time highs had been reached roughly 2–3 months past the place we’re within the present cycle, by relative timing.”
As of Aug. 21, roughly 91% of all Bitcoin had been in revenue, and have remained above the +1 normal deviation band for greater than 273 days within the present cycle, as proven within the chart under. This makes it the second-longest on file, behind the 2015–2018 cycle at 335 days.
This suggests that the current cycle has delivered a comparable period to that which has preceded cycle tops in prior cycles.
When thought-about towards the backdrop of the waves of onchain profit-taking over the previous two years, the information reveals a similarity to earlier cycle tops
Analyzing the cumulative revenue realized (in BTC phrases) by long-term holders (LTHs) — traders who’ve held Bitcoin for a minimum of 155 days — from the purpose of reaching a brand new cycle all-time excessive, till the ultimate peak of the cycle, revealed that LTHs have realized extra revenue than in prior cycles.
Such heightened ranges of profit-taking by LTHs, similar to previous euphoric phases, add “one other dimension by way of the lens of sell-side strain,” Glassnode defined, including:
“Taken collectively, these alerts reinforce the view that the present cycle is firmly in its traditionally late part.”
Fashionable crypto analyst Rekt Capital stated that if Bitcoin goes to peak in its bull market based mostly on historic halving cycles, that might be in mid-September/mid-October 2025.
“That’s solely 1-2 months away.”
Bitcoin worth rejected at $114,000
On Wednesday, Bitcoin bounced strongly from the $112,000 help degree, however the worth was rejected at $114,000, strengthening the case for additional draw back.
This degree “must be convincingly misplaced for BTC to go decrease,” stated analyst Rekt Capital in an X put up, including:
“A weekly shut relative to $114K can even be key.”
Beneath it, the $112,000–$110,000 area stays untested within the newest drawdown, aligning with the 100-day easy transferring common.
If Bitcoin faces deeper pullbacks, this zone may function a “nice purchase alternative,” in accordance with MN Capital founder Michael van de Poppe.
Basic worth motion on #Bitcoin.
This outcomes right into a case that we could not break by way of the primary resistance level and that we’re remaining unstable.
It stays the very fact: if the markets are dropping south of that earlier low –> nice purchase alternative. pic.twitter.com/7BmbrS47RE
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) August 21, 2025
For now, bulls are required to aggressively defend the $110,000 to $112,000 zone, to keep away from a return into the $100,000 to $90,000 vary, in accordance with Daan Crypto Trades.
“Something decrease and I feel the construction goes to be wanting a bit weak.”
This text doesn’t include funding recommendation or suggestions. Each funding and buying and selling transfer entails threat, and readers ought to conduct their very own analysis when making a choice.
