In New Zealand, full inflation figures are solely printed as soon as 1 / 4; every month, solely a choice of costs is tracked and the inflation fee for these is printed, Commerzbank’s FX analyst Volkmar Baur notes.
The chance of rates of interest remaining unchanged has elevated
“The image is subsequently incomplete, and the central financial institution will place considerably extra weight on all the figures for the second quarter than on the month-to-month figures from July when making its financial coverage determination subsequent week.”
“Nonetheless, it is not going to fully ignore the figures printed immediately. These point out that inflation in New Zealand could also be accelerating once more. The month-to-month index means that inflation could have risen from 2.8% in June to three.8% in July. Though it must be famous that meals is overrepresented within the month-to-month indicator and the rise was significantly pronounced right here. The total CPI could subsequently rise much less sharply in Q3 than the month-to-month indicator. Nonetheless, it might give the Reserve Financial institution of New Zealand pause for thought.”
“Most analysts and the market anticipate an additional minimize in the important thing rate of interest to three% subsequent Wednesday. Nonetheless, the chance of rates of interest remaining unchanged has elevated considerably with immediately’s figures.”
