Bitcoin (BTC) heads into the July month-to-month shut eyeing $120,000 as a BTC value rebound holds agency.
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BTC value motion is giving market contributors trigger to anticipate all-time highs once more, however the specter of a $113,000 comedown stays.
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An enormous week of US macro information combines with the Fed assembly on rates of interest amid stress on Chair Jerome Powell.
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The US-EU commerce deal gives an immediate increase for danger property, together with a report open for S&P 500 futures.
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Bitcoin’s efficiency in July 2025 could really feel spectacular, nevertheless it nonetheless has a strategy to go to face out in opposition to historic norms.
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Stablecoin liquidity means that bulls might have to attend earlier than getting the momentum essential to reenter value discovery.
Bitcoin bulls operating at $120,000
A late-week surge positioned Bitcoin value motion inside putting distance of $120,000, however momentum finally didn’t comply with by means of.
Regardless of that, BTC/USD managed to carry the realm round $119,000, per information from Cointelegraph Markets Professional and TradingView, emboldening market contributors to anticipate additional upside subsequent.
“If Bitcoin can tighten up and maintain over $117,000 then i believe we’re good for brand spanking new ATHs very quickly,” well-liked dealer Crypto Tony forecast in a publish on X Monday.
Well-liked dealer and analyst Rekt Capital mentioned that Bitcoin had “kickstarted” a bull flag with its $119,450 weekly shut.
“Wherein case turning ~$119200 into assist through a retest might happen subsequent week (perhaps even through a wick),” he informed X followers alongside an explanatory chart.
“Nonetheless, for the second BTC must keep away from an upside wick past the Bull Flag High resistance in any other case value would keep within the Vary.”
On Sunday, Cointelegraph reported on merchants’ liquidity expectations for the approaching days. Change order books confirmed two key zones above and under the value, with evaluation seeing the potential for a return towards $113,000.
“For $BTC, we’re sitting at about 58.7% longs stacked in opposition to 41.3% shorts. Which means there is a respectable quantity of gas for a transfer up if shorts get flushed, however not an awesome quantity that screams ‘squeeze incoming,’ analyst TheKingfisher argued whereas analyzing liquidations.
“It is balanced sufficient that we might see extra chop till one facet actually commits.”
The newest information from monitoring useful resource CoinGlass reveals bid liquidity laddered between $116,800 and $118,300.
FOMC week begins with Powell in focus
If a lot of July was comparatively quiet by way of US macroeconomic information, the tables are about to show.
The Federal Reserve interest-rate resolution varieties the spotlight of the approaching days, however that is removed from the one focal point for risk-asset merchants.
Q2 GDP is due simply hours earlier than the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assembly on Wednesday. The day after, the Fed’s “most popular” inflation gauge, the Private Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, shall be launched.
“Now we have an enormous week forward of us,” buying and selling useful resource The Kobeissi Letter summarized on X.
Kobeissi added that company earnings will proceed to pour in, creating “probably the most data-packed week of the yr.”
That information comes at a vital time for markets. The continuing divide between authorities expectations and Fed coverage continues to boil over into the general public eye, with President Donald Trump actively calling on Fed Chair Jerome Powell to chop rates of interest.
🇺🇸 JUST IN: Jerome Powell tells allies he received’t resign regardless of Trump’s stress to slash rates of interest. pic.twitter.com/KWw42wb9mB
— Cointelegraph (@Cointelegraph) July 25, 2025
Powell has remained hawkish all through 2025 as inflation information continues to color a blended image — cooling prices with a resilient labor market — permitting the Fed to keep up present coverage.
The newest information from CME Group’s FedWatch Software confirms that markets see hardly any likelihood of a fee lower rising from the FOMC this week, with bets nonetheless favoring the September assembly.
“Whereas the July assembly is broadly anticipated to see no change in charges, buyers shall be on the lookout for clues on fee cuts throughout the remaining conferences of the yr,” buying and selling agency Mosaic Asset confirmed within the newest version of its common e-newsletter, “The Market Mosaic.”
“Fears over inflation will proceed to be a restraining issue on the outlook, with proof of tariffs impacting the newest Shopper Value Index (CPI) report.”
Mosaic referred to the June CPI print coming in above expectations.
US commerce deal progress sparks risk-asset rally
Balancing the myriad volatility dangers from macro information is sweet information for markets extra broadly: the US sealing a commerce cope with the EU and Japan, whereas delaying implementation of tariffs on China for one more 90 days.
🔥 TODAY: The US and EU struck a serious commerce deal
• 15% tariff set on most EU items
• Key sectors like plane, semiconductors, and pharma exempted
• EU to buy $750B in US vitality
• $600B in EU investments pledged, together with protection buys
• Metal and aluminum tariffs… pic.twitter.com/9IIIHmiJQL— Cointelegraph (@Cointelegraph) July 27, 2025
These key occasions had an immediate influence on sentiment and risk-asset efficiency.
US shares futures surged, with the S&P 500 opening above 6,400 for the primary time in historical past because of the commerce bulletins.
Each Trump and European Fee President Ursula Von Der Leyen referred to as the outcome the “largest commerce deal ever,” with the latter noting that the US and EU collectively account for 44% of world GDP.
“Easing commerce tensions and liquidity tailwinds are sending the S&P 500 to contemporary report highs whereas volatility falls to the bottom ranges for the reason that begin of the yr,” Mosaic Asset commented on the commerce subject.
Mosaic added that the financial backdrop within the US additionally favored risk-asset progress. Particularly, it flagged M2, a “broad measure of the U.S. cash provide” which has elevated 4.5% year-on-year.
“M2 bottomed and has been recovering since 2023, and is now making a brand new report excessive alongside main inventory indexes,” it famous.
As Contelegraph reported, Bitcoin and crypto efficiency have been carefully tied to world M2 liquidity traits all through crypto market historical past.
A July like every other for Bitcoin?
At round $120,000, Bitcoin has definitely delivered for bulls this month, however traditionally, July tends to carry out higher.
CoinGlass information reveals that whereas BTC/USD is up 11.3% in July 2025, it is just marginally above the common over the previous 12 years.
Since 2013, July has delivered a mean of seven.85% value upside, with median positive factors at 9.6%.
Even in 2022, Bitcoin’s most up-to-date bear market yr, July managed to supply upside of practically 17%, CoinGlass confirms.
An extra comparative chart uploaded to X by community economist Timothy Peterson on Sunday underscored the established order.
Bitcoin in July https://t.co/wEGc88zhvf pic.twitter.com/tt9RVnFHKK
— Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredvalue) July 27, 2025
Forward of the month-to-month candle shut, in the meantime, well-liked dealer and analyst Aksel Kibar confused that bulls want to carry early July positive factors.
“Breakout within the first week of July was with an extended white candle,” he informed X followers alongside a chart with a $141,300 goal.
“It will be significant to not give again these positive factors throughout the pullback. It is going to present constructive momentum. Thus far value held nicely above the horizontal assist at 109K.”
Common August returns for BTC/USD are decidedly much less spectacular, in the meantime, at simply 1.75%.
Stablecoin liquidity poses questions
These hoping for a swift continuation of the Bitcoin bull market might have to attend some time longer.
Associated: XRP dip was a ‘wholesome correction,’ Ether provide shock: Hodler’s Digest, July 20 – 26
New analysis from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant highlights an element that tends to cap BTC value upside till it resolves.
The stablecoin provide ratio (SSR) has been rising in line with BTC/USD — one thing which might sign a scarcity of stablecoin liquidity, or “dry powder,” obtainable for funding.
“An increase on this indicator signifies that stablecoins are few in comparison with the quantity of Bitcoin. In different phrases, liquidity is weak, and subsequently the market lacks the excessive buying energy to assist Bitcoin,” contributor Arab Chain defined in one in every of CryptoQuant’s “Quicktake” weblog posts Monday.
“The indicator’s rise, together with the rise in Bitcoin’s value, signifies that this rise is happening with out new stablecoins coming into on the identical tempo. A continued rise within the indicator could point out that purchasing momentum could weaken sooner or later as a consequence of low liquidity.”
SSR reached its newest all-time highs in November 2024, a degree practically — however not fairly — eclipsed on July 14.
Arab Chain thus argued that the market could also be coming into a interval of “momentary saturation.”
“This means that the market continues to be partially supported by liquidity, however a continued rise in Bitcoin requires a big enhance within the stablecoin reserve within the coming days,” it concluded.
This text doesn’t comprise funding recommendation or suggestions. Each funding and buying and selling transfer includes danger, and readers ought to conduct their very own analysis when making a call.
