The week forward needs to be a quieter one for US knowledge. Final week’s softish set of value knowledge didn’t transfer the needle considerably on Fed pondering, the place the market continues to cost simply 1-2bp of cuts for the 30 July assembly and 16bp of cuts for the 17 September assembly, ING’s FX analyst Chris Turner notes.
Buying and selling inside final week’s 97.70 to 98.95 seems to be doubtless for DXY
“Brief-dated charges appeared to melt a bit of on Friday after the Federal Reserve’s Christopher Waller laid out his case for a July lower. Nonetheless, Waller stays within the distinct minority of two, and we’re in all probability going to wish to see some very comfortable knowledge, significantly within the labour market, to persuade traders that early cuts are coming. Do not forget that right here at ING, we expect the Fed may maintain again the primary lower till December.”
“How will US knowledge look this week? Issues is perhaps quieter, however the consideration will change to the housing market. Have still-high mortgage charges brought about the housing market to grab up? Some are nervous that the June present and new house gross sales knowledge launched on Wednesday and Thursday this week may present some deterioration. With reference to mortgage charges, US 30-year Treasury yields are lingering round their highs at 5.00%. Traders right here can be looking out for the outcomes of a $13bn public sale of 20-year Treasuries on Wednesday for the most recent demand traits.”
“It may be one other vital week for tech shares. We have had additional earnings studies from Alphabet, Tesla and Intel this week – plus on Wednesday, US President Donald Trump is laying out his plans to ‘win the AI race’. Presumably, US massive tech can be prioritised right here. Within the absence of market-moving knowledge, we suspect the greenback can proceed to consolidate. It has already had three weeks of consolidation, and in quiet markets, plus 4%+ funding prices being quick {dollars}, there doesn’t appear to be a right away catalyst for weaker ranges. Buying and selling inside final week’s 97.70 to 98.95 seems to be doubtless for DXY this week.”
