Speculators sharply boosted their internet lengthy positions in ICE Brent and gasoil futures final week, pushed primarily by new lengthy entries as they centered on short-term market tightness. Whereas crude balances ought to stay comfortable by way of Q3, a surplus looms in This autumn, suggesting these speculative bets might quickly face headwinds, ING’s commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey be aware.
Contemporary longs drive oil bets larger
“The most recent positioning knowledge reveals that speculators elevated their internet lengthy in ICE Brent by 55,630 tons during the last reporting week to 222,347 tons as of final Tuesday. The transfer was predominantly pushed by contemporary longs coming into the market. Speculators seem like influenced extra by short-term dynamics moderately than the medium-term outlook.”
“The oil steadiness suggests the market must be tight by way of the third quarter, earlier than shifting into a big surplus from the fourth quarter. Information reveals that speculators elevated their internet lengthy in ICE gasoil by 12,064 tons to 83,784 tons as of final Tuesday.”
“This shopping for is unsurprising, given the help we have now seen within the center distillate market extra just lately, with stock knowledge pointing to tightness.”
