Oil costs edged increased yesterday, with Brent settling again above $70/bbl. That is regardless of ongoing uncertainty over tariffs, together with OPEC+ just lately asserting a larger-than-expected improve in provide for August, ING’s commodity specialists Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson observe.
Tensions within the Center East are rising
“Elevated tensions within the Center East, within the type of Houthi assaults on vessels within the Purple Sea, will present some help. Additionally, the market stays tight within the close to time period, as mirrored within the time spreads. This may seemingly persist by the northern hemisphere summer season, after we see seasonally stronger demand. The oil market solely begins to loosen from the fourth quarter, after we count on to see extra sustainable downward stress on costs.”
“Numbers from the API in a single day had been bearish for oil, with US crude inventories rising by 7.1m barrels, whereas Cushing crude oil shares elevated by 100k barrels. Adjustments in refined merchandise had been extra constructive with gasoline inventories falling by 2.2m barrels, whereas distillate shares declined by 800k barrels. The drop in distillate shares will do little to assist relieve considerations over a tightening center distillate market.”
“The Power Info Administration (EIA) launched its newest Quick Time period Power Outlook yesterday, revising decrease US crude oil manufacturing progress estimates for this 12 months. The EIA now expects US crude oil manufacturing to develop by round 160k b/d YoY to 13.37m b/d in 2025, in comparison with a earlier progress estimate of round 210k b/d 12 months on 12 months. For 2026, the EIA expects US oil provide progress to be flat. Nevertheless, the drastic slowdown in drilling exercise suggests that there’s draw back for 2026 manufacturing.”
