Bitcoin (BTC) heads right into a key double candle shut simply inches from data — can bulls keep in management?
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Bitcoin order-book liquidity video games proceed because the month-to-month and quarterly shut units the stage for sudden value strikes.
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BTC/USD solely wants to shut June at $104,630 to seal its highest-ever month-to-month shut.
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A relaxed week for US macro information retains consideration centered on the Fed after Powell’s Congressional testimony.
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Bitcoin faces a “important demand deficit” as purchaser energy fails to match distribution by long-term holders.
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Does Bitcoin solely have three months of its bull market left?
BTC value volatility ramps up as “video games” return
A well timed uptick on June 29 positioned BTC/USD on observe for its highest weekly shut on report above $109,000.
Whereas this finally failed, a week-long buying and selling vary continues to carry as June and Q2 come to an finish, information from Cointelegraph Markets Professional and TradingView exhibits.
On the time of writing on June 30, BTC/USD had already closed the newest “hole” in CME Group’s Bitcoin futures market created throughout the weekend strikes.
$BTC Has opened up with a small CME hole beneath.
Keep watch over this space as we have just about seen all CME gaps fill initially of the week, in current months. pic.twitter.com/QCxBUgShuO
— Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) June 30, 2025
Analyzing the shut, which got here in at round $108,400 on Bitstamp, widespread dealer Skew attributed last-minute value energy to a “predatory” algorithmic buying and selling bot.
“Video games are being performed right here to date however maintaining an in depth eye on circulation,” he summarized in a part of an accompanying submit on X.
As a part of these “video games,” Skew noticed that the algorithm’s actions had pushed the market to some extent the place it even liquidated a $12 million BTC quick place earlier than retracing its positive aspects.
“This identical entity pumped BTC 2 weeks in the past, and BTC dumped the day after that,” fellow dealer BitBull continued on the subject.
As Cointelegraph reported, order e book liquidity manipulation by large-volume merchants has contributed to varied value fakeouts in current months.
A month-to-month shut in contrast to another?
With the weekly shut falling in need of report highs, two different candles now come into give attention to BTC/USD.
The June month-to-month shut may also resolve Q2 BTC value efficiency, which presently envisages spectacular 30% positive aspects.
Even June itself, regardless of ending up a rollercoaster of headline-driven volatility, is on observe to finish up “inexperienced,” per information from monitoring useful resource CoinGlass.
Bitcoin merchants are thus assured that this month might act as a springboard for a stronger return to kind subsequent.
17 hours away from locking in one other record-breaking month-to-month shut.
Broke the January highs final month – retested them this month, and pushed greater as soon as extra.
July must be even higher.#Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/UAsHi9Vt5Q
— Jelle (@CryptoJelleNL) June 30, 2025
To seal the best month-to-month shut of all time, BTC value motion should solely maintain $104,630, giving bulls leeway for a roughly 2.9% dip.
The boundaries to last-minute volatility might in the meantime be determined by change order-book liquidity.
Monitoring useful resource Materials Indicators notes loads of near-term value magnets each above and beneath present ranges.
“Ask liquidity is concentrated within the $108k – $110k vary whereas bid liquidity is distributed all the way down to $98k which might invite some volatility over the following 24 – 48 hours,” it summarized on X alongside a print of Binance order-book liquidity.
Materials Indicators co-founder Keith Alan added that he “expects” one other liquidity seize to the draw back sooner or later, regardless of the prospect of report candle closes.
Nonfarm payrolls due as market cements rate-cut bets
The Independence Day vacation rounds off what’s ostensibly a quiet week for US macroeconomic information.
Crypto and risk-asset merchants can thus pause for thought as an unprecedented break up between Federal Reserve coverage and political will hangs within the air.
Whereas many Fed officers and Chair Jerome Powell stay steadfast of their willpower to not reduce rates of interest, US President Donald Trump continues to brazenly criticize their choices.
This has included calling Powell a “silly particular person” along with claiming that the Fed is just too late in beginning a contemporary rate-cut cycle, with Trump even sparking rumors of Powell’s dismissal.
“In the meanwhile, we’re properly positioned to attend to study extra concerning the probably course of the economic system earlier than contemplating any changes to our coverage stance,” Powell informed Congress initially of two days of testimony final week.
Whereas markets see little likelihood of a reduce coming on the subsequent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assembly on the finish of July, the September gathering now has 75% odds of a 0.25% discount, per the newest information from CME Group’s FedWatch Software.
As Cointelegraph reported, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michaelle Bowman hinted that she can be open to a July reduce if information had been to permit.
This week’s major focal point, in the meantime, comes within the type of nonfarm payrolls information on July 3.
“Crucial demand deficit”
Bitcoin long-term holders (LTHs) are starting to trigger concern as Q2 involves an in depth.
Reactivation of dormant cash, mixed with the newly-mined provide, is presently outpacing demand from consumers, analysis warns.
In one among its “Quicktake” weblog posts on June 29, onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant didn’t mince its phrases, describing the scenario as a “important demand deficit.”
“The circulation of cash onto the market from miners and profit-taking LTHs is now better than what new consumers are buying,” contributor Crazzyblockk wrote.
“It is a bearish improvement for 2 causes: It immediately will increase the ‘on the market’ provide, placing downward stress on the worth. Promoting by LTHs, typically thought-about ‘sensible cash,’ can sign that skilled gamers consider the market has reached a neighborhood high.”
CryptoQuant’s Obvious Demand metric, which subtracts LTH and newly-mined cash from purchaser stress, is now unfavorable on a rolling 30-day foundation.
The final time unfavorable Obvious Demand was recorded got here as BTC/USD emerged from multimonth lows below $75,000 in April.
“Consequently, the market is in a susceptible state. Any value rallies from right here will probably battle to beat this wave of accessible provide, and market help could also be weaker than anticipated,” CryptoQuant concluded.
“Whereas not a assure, this on-chain sign strongly suggests a interval of warning is warranted till demand exhibits clear indicators of restoration.”
Time is ticking for the Bitcoin bull market
Bitcoin value motion could also be simply a number of months away from its subsequent bull market high.
Associated: Bitcoin ‘Satoshi-era’ miners offered simply 150 BTC in 2025 amid all-time highs
The newest commentary from widespread dealer and analyst Rekt Capital contains references to historic value cycle habits whereas arguing that the blow-off high could also be nearer than many consider.
“If Bitcoin goes to peak in its Bull Market in September/October 2025 as per historic Halving cycles…,” he informed X followers in one among a number of current posts on the subject.
“That’s solely 2-3 months away.”
Rekt Capital famous that in 2024, BTC/USD hit new all-time highs forward of schedule earlier than April’s block subsidy halving occasion. Historical past, nevertheless, dictates that cycle highs finally come on time.
“In 2024, Bitcoin was experiencing acceleration in its cycle by 260 days when it rallied to new All Time Highs earlier than the Halving. Since then, Bitcoin has lowered that acceleration to 0,” he continued.
“Actually, what if Bitcoin is now experiencing a slowing down in its cycle?”
If a slowdown is the case, BTC/USD ought to thus make up for misplaced time with important positive aspects and a return to cost discovery sooner quite than later.
“It’s true that Bitcoin’s first Worth Discovery Correction has lasted longer than ordinary. However Bitcoin tends to overperform and underperform in numerous phases within the cycle,” Rekt Capital concluded.
“So when Bitcoin breaks out right into a parabolic rally, it could in all probability drastically cut back no matter ‘cycle extension’ BTC introduced on itself over the previous a number of months.”
This text doesn’t comprise funding recommendation or suggestions. Each funding and buying and selling transfer entails threat, and readers ought to conduct their very own analysis when making a call.
