Peter Thiel’s enterprise agency is main a 9‑determine Collection C that values the on‑chain prediction market at $1 billion, whilst U.S. regulators nonetheless block the platform from its largest potential viewers.
Polymarket, the blockchain‑primarily based prediction platform that lets merchants guess on all the pieces from the U.S. presidential race to Taylor Swift’s tour dates, is poised to lift $200 million in recent capital led by Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund, in keeping with folks conversant in the negotiations.
The deal, first reported by Bloomberg late Tuesday, will raise Polymarket’s submit‑cash valuation to about $1 billion, making it one of many first blockchain‑native betting venues to say “unicorn” standing.
Founders Fund, already a backer after a $45 million Collection B final Might, will double down with what sources name its largest single funding in a decentralized‑finance begin‑updated. Accomplice Joey Krug instructed Blockworks the agency’s companions “developed a behavior of checking Polymarket at occasions of breaking information… It turned clear to us that Polymarket was the winner on this market.”
The conviction play widens a bridge between blue‑chip Silicon Valley capital and an business nonetheless skirting the grey edges of U.S. playing legislation.
Why VCs like the percentages
- File engagement. Month-to-month lively merchants climbed previous 475,000 in the course of the US Election whereas open curiosity hit $463 million, each all‑time highs.
- Election tremendous‑cycle. Markets associated to the 2024 US Election marketing campaign alone cleared greater than $2 billion in bets, giving Polymarket a stay demo of its “knowledge of crowds” thesis.
- Distribution bump. A tie‑up earlier this month lets Elon Musk’s X app floor Polymarket odds natively by way of its Grok AI assistant, exposing the venue to 600 million‑plus month-to-month customers, in keeping with X CEO Linda Yaccarino.
The regulatory elephant
For all its momentum, Polymarket stays formally off‑limits to U.S. residents. In January 2022, the corporate paid a $1.4 million high quality to settle Commodity Futures Buying and selling Fee prices that it hosted unregistered occasion‑primarily based swaps. The positioning now geoblocks American IP addresses, however legislation‑enforcement stress hasn’t eased: FBI brokers searched founder Shayne Coplan’s New York condo final November.
That authorized shadow issues as a result of america is by far the world’s most profitable betting market. Enterprise analysts say the valuation Founders Fund is paying solely is sensible if Polymarket finally unlocks U.S. entry.
Polymarket’s blockchain‑native mannequin contrasts with regulated “money market” rival Kalshi, which has spent three years and tens of millions in authorized charges searching for CFTC approval to record political contracts. Different decentralized entrants tout decrease charges or sport‑particular markets however have but to point out comparable liquidity, and none has publicly disclosed a valuation north of $1 billion.
Observe the cash
| Date | Spherical | Lead Buyers | Quantity Raised | Submit-money Valuation | Standing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2020 | Seed | Polychain, angels | $4 M | N/A | Confirmed |
| Jan 2024 | Collection A | 1kx, Naval Ravikant | $25 M | Reported: $150 M | Confirmed (quantity); Valuation unverified |
| Might 2024 | Collection B | Founders Fund, Vitalik Buterin* | $45 M | Reported: $350 M | Confirmed (quantity & lead); Valuation not disclosed |
| June 2025* | Collection C | Founders Fund | $200 M | Reported: $1 B | Not closed; primarily based on leaks |
* Vitalik Buterin participated in Collection B, although not formally listed as a lead.
* Collection C figures are from a Bloomberg-sourced leak and stay unconfirmed by Polymarket or Founders Fund.
Prediction markets have hovered on the perimeter of finance for many years, however proponents argue that crypto rails allow them to clear trades cheaply, transparently, and crucially and not using a central bookie. Advocates comparable to Ethereum co‑founder Vitalik Buterin name Polymarket a “good social philosophy,” the place costs compress actual‑time info quicker than polls or pundit scorching‑takes ever might.
But that very same decentralization alarms regulators who view occasion contracts as unlicensed derivatives. Whether or not Polymarket can convert headline traction right into a sustainable, authorized, and mainstream enterprise will decide if the knowledge of crowds can lastly go the compliance check.
Founders Fund’s 9‑determine guess indicators that a few of Silicon Valley’s most influential traders consider the regulatory odds will break Polymarket’s means. Till they do, the unicorn crown sits on a platform nonetheless barred from the world’s richest pool of bettors, and which will show the riskiest wager of all.
