- The Indian Rupee features for a second day, supported by softer crude Oil costs and a weaker US Greenback.
- US President Donald Trump pronounces a “full and whole” ceasefire between Iran and Israel, calming world power markets.
- S&P International Scores raises India’s FY2025 progress forecast to six.5% and sees reasonable inflation forward.
The USD/INR pair falls on Tuesday for a 3rd consecutive day, as a pullback in world Crude Oil costs and a weaker Dollar improved the outlook for India’s commerce steadiness. Sentiment improved after US President Donald Trump introduced on social media that Iran and Israel have agreed to a ceasefire, easing the tensions that had saved power markets on edge previously days.
On the time of writing, USD/INR trades softer close to 86.00 through the European session, down round 0.50% on the day because the Rupee extends its modest profitable streak.
In the meantime, the US Greenback Index (DXY) stays beneath strain, drifting decrease towards 97.95 — near its lowest degree in almost three years — as easing geopolitical tensions cap demand for the Dollar.
International markets welcomed the ceasefire information, taking some strain off safe-haven belongings and power costs. US President Donald Trump termed it a “full and whole” ceasefire by way of Fact Social, stating that Iran would halt hostilities first, with Israel to hitch 12 hours later — a framework he mentioned was brokered by means of Qatar with enter from senior US officers, together with VP Vance and Secretary Rubio.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu backed the plan, stating his authorities had “achieved army targets” and would honor the US-brokered pause.
Iran’s Overseas Minister Abbas Araghchi at first rejected discuss of a proper settlement however later hinted at de-escalation, praising Iran’s armed forces for “combating till the final minute” and state media reporting that the truce had begun.
Regardless of Israel reaffirming its dedication to the truce, some officers rapidly accused Iran of breaching the phrases — accusations Tehran has firmly denied. Whereas this de-escalation has tempered geopolitical danger premiums, markets stay watchful for any renewed flare-up that would rapidly revive volatility in Oil and foreign money markets.
Market Movers: Rupee rebounds as equities agency
- The Indian Rupee, which had been beneath strain because the Iran–Israel battle erupted — slipping to a three-month low — is now staging a stable restoration. A number of world and home elements, together with easing geopolitical tensions, subdued Oil costs, and a softer US Greenback, have pushed the sharp rebound.
- India’s fairness benchmarks surged as investor optimism rose, pushed by improved danger sentiment and decrease Oil costs. The BSE Sensex jumped almost 1% intraday, briefly including over 1,100 factors earlier than trimming features to shut about 158 factors greater at 82,744. Equally, the NSE Nifty climbed above the 25,200 mark through the session and settled modestly greater above 25,000. Hopes for a long-lasting ceasefire within the Center East and a softer Dollar supported shopping for throughout most sectors, though power shares lagged attributable to weaker crude Oil costs.
- Following Monday’s sharp sell-off, Oil costs prolonged losses early on Tuesday, with Brent briefly slipping under the $70 mark for the primary time in weeks as optimism over an Iran-Israel ceasefire trimmed the geopolitical danger premium. Nonetheless, costs later pared among the intraday decline — on the time of writing, Brent is buying and selling close to $68.66 per barrel, whereas WTI holds round $66.50. The softer power market continues to ease price pressures for Oil-importing nations like India, providing help to the Rupee and broader danger sentiment, although merchants stay cautious concerning the fragile nature of the truce.
- S&P International Scores raised India’s GDP progress projection for the present fiscal yr to six.5%, up from its earlier estimate of 6.3%, citing supportive elements comparable to falling crude Oil costs, the prospect of financial easing, and expectations of a traditional monsoon season. The company additionally famous that whereas geopolitical tensions persist, they’re unlikely to create “important strain” on the Rupee or stoke inflation dangers, providing an encouraging backdrop for the foreign money and the broader economic system.
- S&P economist Vishrut Rana advised PTI that power prices stay decrease than final yr — Brent crude averaged round $85 a barrel a yr in the past, in comparison with present ranges. “It will assist comprise each present account outflows and home power worth pressures — whereas power costs might rise reasonably, the trail of meals costs may have the next influence on inflation. General, we don’t anticipate important strain on the Indian rupee or inflation,” Rana added.
- S&P’s upgraded FY2026 progress estimate for India aligns with the Reserve Financial institution of India’s projection, pegging GDP enlargement at 6.5%. Alongside stronger progress, S&P forecasts that India’s inflation will reasonable to a mean of 4% in 2025, easing from 4.6% in 2024.
- The US Greenback Index (DXY) is buying and selling on a softer footing as markets brace for contemporary coverage clues from the Federal Reserve (Fed). Latest feedback from Fed officers, together with Vice Chair Michelle Bowman and Governor Christopher Waller, have strengthened expectations that charge cuts might come as quickly as July. All eyes at the moment are on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony earlier than Congress in a while Tuesday, which merchants hope will present clearer steerage on the coverage path forward.
Technical evaluation: USD/INR softens after triangle breakout, EMA help in focus
From a technical perspective, USD/INR broke out of a months-long triangle sample earlier in June, confirming an upside bias.
The pair surged previous the descending trendline resistance however rapidly bumped into promoting strain close to 86.80–87.00. This zone has capped additional features, leading to a modest pullback over the previous three days.
The pair is now hovering simply above its 21-day Exponential Transferring Common (EMA), which serves as speedy help at round 85.90. Holding this degree might assist bulls regroup for an additional try on the latest excessive close to 86.50, whereas a break under would possibly expose the subsequent help round 85.50 and the triangle’s higher trendline retest.
Momentum alerts are exhibiting early indicators of fatigue, indicating probably uneven worth motion within the close to time period.
The day by day Relative Power Index (RSI), which not too long ago peaked above 67, has slipped again towards the impartial 50 zone, suggesting that the bullish momentum is dropping steam however not but absolutely reversing.
If consumers defend the EMA help, the pair might keep a gentle upward bias. Nonetheless, a sustained drop under the 85.90–85.70 space would possibly encourage additional profit-taking, dragging USD/INR again contained in the prior consolidation vary.
