What if the most important menace to international markets is just not an oil value shock, however a protracted battle resulting in a deeper US involvement within the struggle effort, with final implications for protection spend and thereby for the fiscal outlook, TDS’ Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes.
Markets face deeper threat from US struggle involvement
“Gold stays the lowest-risk expression of a MidEast geopolitics hedge.”
“The optionality for additional value will increase now seems excessively low-cost with potential catalysts starting from safe-haven inflows tied to additional geopolitical escalation, resumed rate of interest cuts within the occasion of an entire about-face on commerce, a stagflationary atmosphere within the occasion of a continued commerce struggle, challenges to central financial institution credibility with Chair Powell’s time period coming to an finish inside a yr or resumed Asian forex depreciation pressures.”
“We see echoes of January 2024, at the same time as Gold costs stay solely a nudge under all-time highs.”
