Key takeaways:
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Bitcoin AVIV Ratio stays beneath historic peak ranges, indicating a possible climb above $330,000 earlier than a cycle high is confirmed.
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Over-the-counter Bitcoin holdings are down considerably in 2025, pointing to strategic accumulation by Technique, Metaplanet, BlackRock and others.
Bitcoin (BTC) value has had a rocky month, however current evaluation signifies that BTC may surge one other 300% this cycle. Technical analyst Gert van Lagen’s X submit highlights the AVIV Ratio, a metric that compares Bitcoin’s energetic capitalization (cash in movement) to its complete invested capitalization (realized capital, excluding miner rewards).
Traditionally, when the AVIV Ratio crosses its +3σ imply deviation, it has signaled a cycle high. For instance, BTC was $1,200 in 2013, close to $20,000 in 2017, and round $69,000 in 2021. At present, the AVIV Ratio’s stage stays beneath these previous peaks, suggesting Bitcoin may climb to at the least $330,000 this cycle, earlier than the +3σ imply deviation situation is met.
The AVIV Ratio affords a novel lens on market dynamics, reflecting investor exercise versus locked-in worth. A spike signifies heightened buying and selling or profit-taking, usually previous main value actions. Van Lagen’s evaluation ties this to Bitcoin’s cyclical nature, the place post-ATH rallies have traditionally delivered important features. Nevertheless, its predictive accuracy lacks validation in various market circumstances, and volatility stays a wildcard.
Including to the narrative, knowledge from CryptoQuant reveals a notable shift: Bitcoin holdings on over-the-counter (OTC) desks have dropped from 166,500 to 137,400 in 2025. This decline suggests massive traders are transferring holdings off exchanges, doubtlessly signaling decreased promoting strain or a shift towards long-term storage.
The declining balances at OTC desks this yr stem from strategic accumulation by institutional traders, led by Technique’s aggressive shopping for, and new entrants like Metaplanet, which has amassed 10,000 BTC, alongside sturdy web inflows into the spot Bitcoin ETFs, which complete $128.18 billion in web worth. BlackRock’s crypto portfolio additionally holds greater than $70 billion in BTC, which sums up the present intent of main traders out there.
📊MARKET UPDATE: #BlackRock added one other $250 million in #Bitcoin on June 17 — marking six straight days of shopping for, now totaling $1.4 billion.
Its present $BTC holding is valued at over $70 billion. 🤯
(h/t: @arkham) pic.twitter.com/JmjNAu2kDY
— Cointelegraph Markets & Analysis (@CointelegraphMT) June 18, 2025
Associated: 25% Bitcoin value rally set to comply with at present’s correction if historical past repeats
Energy regulation places Bitcoin value goal between $220,000 and $330,000
Much like Van Lagen’s $330,000 value goal, one other examine by Bitcoin researcher Sminston With outlined a comparable cycle high for BTC. With’s evaluation leverages a 365-day easy transferring common (SMA) aligned with an influence regulation mannequin (R²=0.96), projecting Bitcoin’s value may attain $220,000 to $330,000 on this cycle.
At present buying and selling round $104,000, BTC would want a 100% to 200% surge to hit these ranges, per historic peaks the place costs doubled or tripled above the ability regulation trendline.
With’s mannequin challenges assumptions of diminishing volatility, displaying Bitcoin’s value cycles retain important swings, as evidenced by regular deviations from the trendline. Whereas optimistic, the researcher cautions that the evaluation attracts from solely 4 market cycles, urging skepticism.
Likewise, Cointelegraph reported {that a} checklist of 30 bull market peak indicators from CoinGlass suggests Bitcoin may climb to $230,000, with none signaling a cycle high regardless of BTC reaching $112,000. Metrics like Pi Cycle Prime and MVRV present the bull market has room to run, supporting With’s optimistic outlook.
Associated: Bitcoin beneath $100K now ‘much less seemingly’ as BTC value eyes liquidity at $106K
This text doesn’t include funding recommendation or suggestions. Each funding and buying and selling transfer entails threat, and readers ought to conduct their very own analysis when making a call.
