EUR/USD extends positive aspects as DXY slides to close three-year low, Empire State Index slumps
- The EUR/USD holds agency above 1.1550 because the US Greenback Index (DXY) slips again beneath 98.00.
- Weak Empire State Manufacturing Index deepens Greenback stress; Eurozone wage development slows, giving the ECB room to remain cautious.
- Markets will eye US retail gross sales and the Fed’s coverage choice on Wednesday; recent Eurozone HICP knowledge and ECB audio system may also be in focus midweek.
The Euro (EUR) is climbing towards the US Greenback (USD) in the beginning of the week, rebounding from Friday’s risk-off dip triggered by hostilities between Israel and Iran. With markets much less jittery and the urge for food for the US Greenback fading, the EUR/USD pair positive aspects traction because the US Greenback Index (DXY) retreats, with merchants trimming risk-off bets and reacting to surprisingly weak manufacturing unit knowledge from New York.
The EUR/USD is hovering beneath 1.1600 on the time of writing, reversing from a excessive of 1.1616 with a day by day achieve of roughly 0.70% to commerce close to 1.1594. The pair stays just below final week’s peak at 1.1631, its highest stage since October 2021. In the meantime, the US Greenback Index (DXY), which measures the Dollar’s worth towards a basket of six main currencies, continues to float decrease, slipping again beneath the 98.00 mark to commerce round 97.75, close to its lowest stage in three years.
Recent knowledge from the New York Federal Reserve added to the Greenback’s woes after the Empire State Manufacturing Index tumbled to -16.0 in June from -9.2 in Might, lacking market forecasts of -5.5. This marked the weakest studying since March’s two-year low of -20.0, signaling a deeper contraction in manufacturing unit exercise and fueling issues over a slowdown in regional financial momentum.
Including to the Euro’s backdrop, recent Eurostat figures confirmed wages throughout the Eurozone rose by 3.4% YoY within the first quarter of 2025, slowing from a 4.1% improve within the earlier quarter. This marks the weakest tempo of wage development for the reason that third quarter of 2022, providing some reduction to the European Central Financial institution (ECB) because it maintains a cautious, wait-and-see method amid cooling inflation and lackluster development momentum.
Echoing this cautious tone, ECB Governing Council member Joachim Nagel urged warning in Monday’s handle on the Frankfurt summit, saying the financial institution ought to neither rule out additional easing nor decide to a pause in fee cuts, given persistent uncertainties. Regardless of inflation hovering round goal, he emphasised a meeting-by-meeting method—particularly in gentle of geopolitical dangers tied to the Center East—and warned that committing to a path now may backfire.
Trying forward, markets will concentrate on Tuesday’s US retail gross sales knowledge and the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) coverage choice on Wednesday, with no fee change anticipated however steerage intently watched. On the Euro facet, recent Eurozone inflation figures (HICP) are due the identical day, alongside remarks from ECB officers corresponding to Knot, Nagel, and Villeroy, which may provide extra clues on the trail for charges.
Euro PRICE As we speak
The desk beneath reveals the proportion change of Euro (EUR) towards listed main currencies at this time. Euro was the strongest towards the US Greenback.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.46% | -0.26% | -0.33% | -0.21% | -0.82% | -0.93% | -0.08% | |
| EUR | 0.46% | 0.09% | 0.10% | 0.26% | -0.23% | -0.47% | 0.38% | |
| GBP | 0.26% | -0.09% | 0.04% | 0.17% | -0.32% | -0.55% | 0.29% | |
| JPY | 0.33% | -0.10% | -0.04% | 0.13% | -0.79% | -0.96% | -0.16% | |
| CAD | 0.21% | -0.26% | -0.17% | -0.13% | -0.54% | -0.72% | 0.12% | |
| AUD | 0.82% | 0.23% | 0.32% | 0.79% | 0.54% | -0.23% | 0.62% | |
| NZD | 0.93% | 0.47% | 0.55% | 0.96% | 0.72% | 0.23% | 0.85% | |
| CHF | 0.08% | -0.38% | -0.29% | 0.16% | -0.12% | -0.62% | -0.85% |
The warmth map reveals proportion adjustments of main currencies towards one another. The bottom forex is picked from the left column, whereas the quote forex is picked from the highest row. For instance, for those who choose the Euro from the left column and transfer alongside the horizontal line to the US Greenback, the proportion change displayed within the field will symbolize EUR (base)/USD (quote).
