Sturdy momentum may outweigh oversold situations, however any additional decline in US Greenback (USD) could not attain 142.20 at the moment. Within the longer run, not solely has the probability of a restoration dissipated, however the probability of USD declining to 142.20 has additionally elevated, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia notice.
The probability of a restoration dissipated
24-HOUR VIEW: “We indicated yesterday that ‘the present worth actions are probably a part of a spread buying and selling part, anticipated to be between 143.60 and 145.10.’ Our evaluation was incorrect, as USD broke under 143.60, reaching a low of 143.16 earlier than closing at 143.47. On the time of writing within the early Asian commerce at the moment, USD has fallen under 143.00. Whereas sturdy downward momentum may outweigh oversold situations, any additional decline could not have the ability to attain 142.20 at the moment (there’s one other help stage at 142.50). On the upside, any restoration is more likely to face sturdy resistance at 143.95, with minor resistance at 143.65.”
1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “In our most up-to-date narrative from Monday (09 Jun, spot at 144.70), we indicated that the rise in upward momentum shouldn’t be ample to point a sustained advance simply but.’ Nevertheless, we identified that ‘if USD have been to interrupt and maintain above 145.50, it may probably set off a robust restoration.’ Yesterday, USD broke under our ‘sturdy help’ stage of 143.60. Not solely has the probability of a restoration dissipated, however the probability of USD declining to 142.20 has additionally elevated. Nevertheless, ought to USD break above 144.40, it could counsel that it may commerce in a broad vary for a time period.”
