The Power Data Administration (EIA) revised its US crude Oil manufacturing estimates downward for 2026. In its newest Brief-Time period Power Outlook, launched yesterday, the EIA mentioned output would decline by 50k b/d 12 months on 12 months in 2026 to 13.37m b/d. This might be the primary annual decline in US output since 2021, when Covid hit manufacturing. In the meantime, output development for 2025 was left unchanged at 210k b/d YoY. The decline isn’t too shocking, given the current slowdown in drilling exercise, ING’s commodity specialists Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson observe.
EIA sees first U.S. Oil output decline since 2021 amid drilling slowdown
“There’s rising uncertainty within the refined merchandise market because the European Fee proposes a ban on imports constituted of Russian crude Oil, in keeping with a assertion from Ursula von der Leyen, the President of the European Fee. Whereas the EU has already banned the import of Russian crude Oil and refined merchandise, the bloc is importing refined merchandise from third international locations that course of Russian crude Oil.”
“This might principally put refined product imports from India and Turkey in danger. Each international locations import Russian crude Oil and export refined merchandise to the EU. In keeping with LSEG knowledge, India and Turkey imported 1.77m b/d of Russian crude Oil within the first quarter of 2025, whereas the EU imported greater than 350k b/d of refined merchandise from these two international locations. The majority of this circulate is center distillates. Such a transfer would result in one more shift in refined product commerce flows. However the Fee implementing such a ban can be troublesome, provided that refiners mix various kinds of crude Oil. Figuring out the origin of the crude Oil turns into difficult.”
“The most recent numbers from the American Petroleum Institute (API) present that US crude Oil inventories fell by round 400k barrels over the past week, lower than the roughly 2.6m barrel draw the market anticipated. Modifications in refined merchandise have been extra bearish with gasoline and distillate shares rising by 3m barrels and three.7m barrels, respectively.”
