US Greenback (USD) consolidates with delicate upticks this morning. DXY was final at 99.15 ranges, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong word.
US-China commerce talks could result in de-escalation
“Each day momentum and RSI indicators should not displaying a transparent indication. Assist at 98.35, 97.90 (2025 low). Resistance at 99.80 (21 DMA), 100.20 (50 DMA). We proceed to flag the chance of USD quick overlaying forward of CPI, PPI experiences (Wednesday, Thursday, respectively) and FOMC occasion danger subsequent week.”
“US CPI (on Wednesday) could be a binary danger. Consensus expects core CPI to choose up barely to 0.3% MoM (vs. 0.2% prior) and headline CPI to carry regular at 0.2% MoM. Softer print might even see USD softness resuming whereas firmer print might even see USD shorts unwind additional. On US-China commerce talks, Scott Bessent informed reporters yesterday they’d a ‘good assembly’ whereas Lutnick known as the discussions ‘fruitful’.”
“US signalled a willingness to take away restrictions on some tech exports in alternate for assurances that China is easing limits on uncommon earth shipments. We proceed to watch if the present spherical of US-China commerce talks (extends into day 2 in London) results in a extra formalised settlement earlier than the commerce truce expires on 12 August. Optimistic developments on this entrance ought to proceed to maintain AxJs broadly supported.”
