The ECB is broadly anticipated to chop the coverage charge 25bps to 2.00% (8:15am New York, 1:15pm London), BBH FX analysts report.
Focus turns to Lagarde and cut up vote
“President Christine Lagarde’s press convention is 30mins later. The ECB will publish up to date macroeconomic projections. On the final April 16-17 coverage assembly, the ECB unanimously determined to chop the coverage charge by 25bps to 2.25% citing ‘the disinflation course of is properly on observe’ and ‘the outlook for progress has deteriorated owing to rising commerce tensions’.”
“This time round we doubt the choice to chop the coverage charge might be unanimous as a couple of ECB policymakers (Holzmann, Nagel, Müller, and Schnabel) have just lately signaled desire for a pause. A cut up vote can result in a modest upward adjustment to ECB charge expectations in favor of EUR. Rate of interest futures suggest 60bps of ECB easing over subsequent 12 months and the coverage charge to backside between 1.50% and 1.75%.”
