The Canadian Greenback (CAD) has edged a bit of decrease on the session, in keeping with its main foreign money friends. Spot might proceed to vary commerce forward of Wednesday’s BoC coverage resolution, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
Scope of USD positive factors nonetheless appears restricted
“We anticipate a maintain and market pricing suggests solely 20% chance of a minimize. However policymakers have loads to contemplate. Even whereas US tariff coverage continues to evolve, the impression on the worldwide economic system is obvious (the OECD at present revised down its 2025 progress outlook for a second time this yr—to 2.9%, from 3.3%).”
“Wildfires proceed to encroach on Alberta oil manufacturing which may very well be one other unwelcome, if short-term, examine on home progress. The CAD is buying and selling a bit of stronger than our truthful worth estimate (1.3781) at present which is a optimistic however might point out restricted room for additional CAD positive factors in the mean time until markets discover renewed motivation to promote the USD.”
“One other bounce from the higher 1.36s, leaving a possible ‘hammer’ sign on the each day chart Monday, has echoes of final Monday’s value motion in funds which noticed the USD push as much as the mid/higher 1.38s earlier than turning decrease once more. With the broader downtrend within the USD nonetheless well-entrenched throughout short-, medium– and long-term charts and oscillators, scope of USD positive factors nonetheless appears restricted. Certainly, intraday value alerts recommend higher promoting pressures has began to emerge forward of 1.3745/50 resistance. Search for stiff resistance between 1.3825/50.”
