The Reserve Financial institution of New Zealand (RBNZ) lower the OCR by 25bps to three.25%, aligning with market expectations. Nonetheless, the tone of the assembly suggests a shift away from a dovish stance. Key highlights from the MPC embrace a 5-1 vote cut up in favour of the lower, which contrasts with the prevailing market expectation for a unanimous resolution. Pair was final at 0.5968 ranges, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong observe.
Each day momentum is flat
“RBNZ’s up to date projections point out a median OCR of two.9% by year-end. Chief Economist Conway emphasised that charges are nearing a impartial stage, whereas Governor Hawkesby expressed warning about future price changes, remarking ‘we’ve got accomplished plenty of work’. “
“This means the RBNZ is not dedicated to a predetermined easing trajectory, with future strikes prone to rely on incoming financial information. We anticipate the potential for one other 25bp lower to three.0% within the third quarter, doubtlessly in August. Importantly, RBNZ’s departure from its dovish stance since July 2024 could doubtlessly be a optimistic for NZD. “
“Each day momentum is flat whereas RSI fell. Golden cross fashioned with 50 DMA reducing 200 DMA to the upside. Interim, we see 2-way dangers however extra broadly, bias to purchase dips. Help at 0.5930 (21 DMA), 0.5860 ranges (50, 200 DMAs). Resistance at 0.6020, 0.6060 ranges.”
