Altcoin market cap may surge towards $15 trillion if Bitcoin dominance repeats its post-halving drop.

Key takeaways:

• Ethereum has reclaimed a key degree that preceded 100%+ rallies and triggered previous altseasons.

• Altcoin market cap may surge towards $15 trillion if Bitcoin dominance repeats its post-halving drop.

• Regardless of bullish alerts, ETH stays fragile, with $123B in provide close to value foundation liable to flipping right into a loss.

Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), has reclaimed a key technical degree that has traditionally preceded sharp worth beneficial properties and marked the beginning of an “altseason” throughout a number of market cycles within the final 5 years.

ETH worth can double within the coming months

The extent in query is the mid-line (~$2,600) of the Gaussian Channel—a transferring average-based band that tracks long-term momentum—on the 2-week chart.

In 2020-2021, ETH rallied from $400 to over $4,800 after closing above the Gaussian mid-line. An analogous transfer in late 2023 noticed ETH climb from beneath $1,500 to just about $4,000 inside a yr.

In each cases, ETH shortly superior towards and broke above the channel’s higher band as momentum constructed.

As of Might 2025, that higher band sat close to $3,200, making it the subsequent key resistance. A breakout above this degree may open the trail towards the earlier cycle excessive of $4,100 by July.

Associated: Ethereum worth chart targets $4K as transaction charges hit 3-month excessive

The subsequent ETH pump might begin altseason — analysts

ETH worth rally might additional affect the broader altcoin market to rise alongside, in keeping with market analyst Moustache, who cited the identical Gaussian Channel fractal.

The mixed market cap of the altcoin market, excluding Ethereum, surged by over 1,400% over a yr after Ether’s shut above the channel’s midline in July 2020.

Equally, the altcoin market cap gained by greater than 200% a yr after ETH’s midline breakout in November 2023.

The prospect of a 2025 altseason strengthens with a repeating post-Bitcoin-halving sample.

In each 2017 and 2021, Bitcoin dominance dropped sharply round 400 days after the halving, triggering altcoin rallies. With the April 2024 halving nearing the identical interval, an identical decline may happen inside the subsequent 100 days.

Analyst Wimar X expects the altcoin market cap to surge towards $15 trillion if the development repeats.

Ethereum metric warns about potential bull lure

The most important portion of ETH’s market cap—round $123 billion—is held by traders who purchased between $2,300 and $2,500, in keeping with onchain information from Glassnode.

If ETH’s worth drops even barely beneath this vary, a lot of holders would fall right into a loss. That would enhance the chance of panic promoting, including stress to the market.

So whereas ETH is exhibiting technical power, its help stays shallow until it will probably transfer additional away from this value zone.

This text doesn’t include funding recommendation or suggestions. Each funding and buying and selling transfer entails threat, and readers ought to conduct their very own analysis when making a call.