The Oil market is buying and selling firmer this morning after President Trump stated he would delay the deadline for tariffs on EU items till 9 July. That is after saying late final week that the US would impose 50% tariffs beginning 1 June. The extension comes after a telephone name with European Fee President Ursula von der Leyen. In the meantime, Russia stepped up its assaults on Ukraine, prompting Trump to say that he’s contemplating sanctions towards Moscow, which may put Russian vitality flows in danger, ING’s commodity consultants Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson word.
Numerous noise this week forward of the OPEC+ assembly
“The decrease Oil value setting continues to end in diminished drilling exercise within the US. Baker Hughes knowledge reveals that energetic rigs fell by 8 final week to 465. That is the fourth consecutive week of declines, leaving the rig rely at its lowest since November 2021. Frac unfold rely knowledge from Main Imaginative and prescient additionally reveals an extra slowdown in completion exercise. The slowdown in exercise is not any shock, contemplating West Texas Intermediate (WTI ) ahead costs are averaging a bit over $60/bbl for the rest of this yr. Additionally, calendar 2026 costs are averaging related ranges. The trade wants, on common, $65/bbl to drill a brand new nicely profitably, in accordance with the Dallas Federal Reserve’s quarterly vitality survey.”
“The newest positioning knowledge reveals that speculators elevated their internet lengthy in ICE Brent by 12,185 heaps during the last reporting week to 163,329 heaps as of final Tuesday. This may be because of fading hopes of an Iranian nuclear deal. Positioning knowledge reveals that, whereas we noticed some contemporary longs getting into the markets, with 21,892 plenty of contemporary shopping for, some speculators are promoting the market. The gross brief has elevated by 9,707 heaps.”
“We’re prone to hear plenty of noise this week forward of the OPEC+ assembly on Sunday, 1 June, the place the group will determine on output coverage for July. Final week, there have been options that the group is contemplating one other sizable provide improve. We’re assuming in our stability sheet that the group will agree to extend output by one other 411k b/d in July. This could hold the market nicely equipped over the second half of this yr.”
