The oil market offered off yesterday following feedback from President Trump that the US and Iran had been shifting nearer in direction of a nuclear deal, ING’s commodity specialists Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson word.
OPEC+ international locations are ramping up provide
“A nuclear deal that lifts sanctions will clearly take away a variety of the availability threat hanging over the marketplace for a while now. As well as, it will enable Iran to extend oil output with extra prepared patrons for its oil. This might end in extra provide within the neighborhood of 400k b/d.”
“Considerations over the potential for extra Iranian provide come as OPEC+ are additionally ramping up provide. As well as, there are many issues over the demand outlook for the market. This was evident within the Worldwide Vitality Company’s (IEA) month-to-month oil market report, launched yesterday. The IEA estimates that world oil demand development will gradual from 990k b/d within the first quarter to 650k b/d for the rest of the 12 months.”
“This sees 2025 demand rising by 740k b/d. Slowing development displays financial headwinds and robust EV gross sales. For 2026, the company expects demand to develop by 760k b/d. The IEA expects provide to develop by 1.6m b/d in 2025 and 970k b/d in 2026. Decrease oil costs prodded the IEA to decrease its US provide development estimates for this 12 months and subsequent.”
