AUD/USD is struggling to maintain a break above its 200-day transferring common at 0.6455. Australia’s labor market stays robust and bodes nicely for AUD, BBH’s FX analysts report.
RBA seen easing cautiously as employment surges in April
“Employment overshot consensus rising 89k in April (consensus: 22.5k) vs. 36.4k in March. Full-time jobs elevated 59.5k vs. 12.2k in March, and part-time jobs rose 29.5k vs. 24.2k in March. The unemployment fee was unchanged at 4.1% and the labor power participation fee elevated to 67.1% vs. 66.8% in March, simply shy of the 67.2% report excessive.”
“RBA money fee futures proceed to totally price-in a 25bps lower to three.85% at subsequent week’s coverage assembly as inflation pressures have eased. Nevertheless, the strong jobs market means the RBA will preserve charges restrictive or above impartial for longer. Based mostly on the common of the RBA’s seven fashions, the nominal impartial fee is between 2.75% and three.00%.”
“Money fee futures suggest 75bps of whole easing over the subsequent 12 months (down from 100bps earlier than the roles information) and the coverage fee to backside at 3.25%.”
