The CAD is getting into Tuesday’s NA session unchanged vs. the USD, its vary tightly sure inside a touch bullish (USD/CAD bearish) development channel from mid April, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
CAD is consolidating forward of Trump/Carney assembly
“The main target is on worldwide relations and the primary assembly between newly elected PM Carney and President Trump in DC. The steadiness of threat is probably going tilted to the draw back, given the CAD’s current run of energy and the potential for disappointment following a formidable CAD rally pushed by hopes of a reconciliation. By way of knowledge, Canada will launch its worldwide merchandise commerce figures at 8:30am ET. These are for the month of March and can characterize the state of commerce forward of the US tariff announcement in early April.”
“Canada’s deficit is anticipated to have widened modestly. USD/CAD’s FV estimate stays regular slightly below 1.3900, barely above present ranges in spot, suggesting some CAD energy relative to our evaluation of its fundamentals. Our CFTC weekly sentiment report launch yesterday highlighted that CAD stays the biggest held web quick among the many reporting currencies, leaving CAD bears susceptible to adjustment and place squaring within the occasion of a continued rally.
“The current development in USD/CAD is gently bearish. The tempo of the decline has been such that it represents a slowing in momentum and is due to this fact delivering optimistic divergence, with the RSI failing to substantiate the recent lows in spot. We glance to near-term help under 1.3780 and see the opportunity of additional help round 1.3750 within the occasion of a break. We see near-term resistance within the 1.3880- 1.3900 vary.”
