2026-03-12 10:31:00
Both S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures are down 0.4% on the day after a bit of a mixed showing yesterday. At the balance, tech shares managed to help keep risk from falling off in the day before. But when you factor in all that has transpired since the US-Iran conflict started, US stocks have not been hurt that badly.
The S&P 500 is now down just 1% for the year after the close yesterday. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq is down a little over 2% for the year so far and the Dow also down by slightly over 1%. And even on the charts, you can see that it is a case of bend but don’t break just yet for US stocks.
S&P 500 index daily chart
Nasdaq Composite index daily chart
Sure, the upside momentum has been taken away. The Nasdaq already saw that in February on a break of its 100-day moving average (red line). And the latest developments in the Middle East is even seeing a run at the October and November lows, with a test of the 200-day moving average (blue line) as well.
That is now the key line in the sand for tech shares. A firm break below that level and the 22,000 mark will set off another big wave of selling. And that could be where the real correction starts for US stocks and big tech in general. The flip of the double top pattern at 24,000 could indicate a reversal back towards the 20,000 mark. That is roughly another 12% drop from where we are now, which will be a significant retracement at least.
As for the S&P 500, the war has seen the index break back under its own 100-day moving average (red line) for the first time since May last year. That in itself points to a material shift in the momentum in Wall Street. But just like the Nasdaq, we’re not seeing any further breakdown in the charts just yet.
The 200-day moving average (blue line) at around 6,596 is the next crucial point before the October and November lows come in around 6,525-50 next. Those will be important levels to watch if higher oil prices continue to reverberate across broader markets in the days/weeks ahead. From earlier: Oil prices continue to be the tail that is wagging the dog
